Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
Wednesday MLB 1* Pick
Wednesday, September
23
5:10 pm Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
The Pick Cleveland
-131 Westgate
Playoffs Still a
Possibility for Twins and Tribe
Although the odds are slim, especially for the Indians,
there is a chance for both of these teams to make the playoffs. The Twins trail the Astros for the second
Wild Card spot by two games and the Indians are 4.5 back.
The Pitchers
Kluber, Indians
Kluber, last year’s Cy Young Winner, has had a rough
year. He’s 8-14 on the year with a 3.44
era. He has fanned 224 batters. In his first start off the disabled list last
time out he was limited to just 61 pitches.
If the Indians handle him the way they did teammate Carlos Carrasco,
Kluber will have an 80 pitch limit.
While Kluber’s record looks horrendous, he hasn’t pitched all that
bad. He has been inconsistent. On the road he is 3-7 with a 3.95 era and in
his last 3 starts he has gone 0-1 with a 2.55 era. In his last sstart off the disabled list
Kluber went 4 against KC and gave up 5 hits and 2 earned runs while fanning
5. Kluber owns the Twins in recent
starts. He’s 6-2 lifetime against them
with a 3.22 era. In his 3 starts against
the Twins this year he is 2-0. He’s
given up 4 earned runs in 26 innings and a mere 7 hits. Kluber has walked 6 and struck out 25.
Hughes, Twins
Hughes is another guy coming off the disabled list. He was set to stay in the bullpen, but a shoulder
issue took Tommy Milone out of the lineup and the Twins put Hughes back in the
rotation. On the year, Hughes is 10-9 with
a 4.46 era. He’s only made 1 appearance
since leaving the DL and he allowed the Tigers 3 runs on 6 hits in 3
innings. Hughes is a homebody with and
8-3 record at home and a 4.09 era. He’s
0-3 in his last 3 with a mammoth 10.03 era.
Prior to going on the DL he had given up 10 runs and 14 hits in 8
2/3. Hughes is 5-3 against Cleveland
with a 4.28 era lifetime. He has 3
starts against Cleveland this year and has given up 15 earned runs and 27 hits
in 16 innings.
The Bullpens
Cleveland – 3.20 on the road ; 35 saves and 10 blown saves
Minnesota – 3.82 at home ; 43 saves and 14 blown saves
I believe the pitching edge here belongs strongly to
Cleveland. Kluber has had great success
against the Twins and Hughes has been horrible against the Tribe. The bullpens are fairly close, but Cleveland
even has a slight edge there and I’m guessing both teams with use 3 pitchers at
least in this one.
The Hitters
Cleveland
Cleveland averages 4.1 runs per game. They drop a few notches to 3.7 on the
road. Against RHP they go to 4.5 and in
their last 7 have scored an average of 4.4.
At night they score 4.1 and 4.4 in division. Despite some outburst, in their last 12 games
the Tribe has scored 4 or less 5 times. The
Indians sport an overall batting average of .257 which ranks 10th in
MLB. They drop to .240 on the road. The Indians are 11th in MLB with
8.7 hits per game. Cleveland is 6th
in MLB on base % at .326.
Minnesota
The Twins average 4.3 runs per game. The Twins score 4.8 at home and 4.1 against
RHP. They’ve scored an average of 4.6 in
their past 7 games and 4.5 rpg at night.
In division they average 4.3 runs per game. Minnesota is 25th in MLB batting
averages at .248. They jump all the way
to .265 at home. Minnesota ranks 23rd
in MLB with 8.4 hits per game. Minnesota
has a slight power edge over the Tribe but neither team uses the long ball as a
major weapon. Minnesota is 27th
in MLB on base% at .306.
I give Minnesota the edge in offense. It’s a tricky one though because if we use
numbers from the season overall, Cleveland is superior. But the Twins home edge allows them to
surpass the Indians offensively. But if
they can’t score against Kluber, it will not matter.
Odds and Ends
Cleveland is 74-75 and Minnesota is 77-73.
Cleveland scores 4.1 and allows 4.1 runs per game for a zero
run differential.
Minnesota scores 4.3 runs per game and allows 4.4 runs per
game for a MINUS 0.1 run differential.
Cleveland is 11-5 as road favorite -125/-150. Twins are 22-17 as dog in same situation.
Cleveland is 39-37 on the road and Minnesota is 45-31 at
home.
Cleveland is 28-38 in division and Minnesota is 34-30.
Cleveland is 49-49 at night and Minnesota is 47-42.
Cleveland is 51-44 against RHP and Minnesota is 50-48.
After a loss Cleveland is 41-32. After a win Minnesota is 38-38.
Cleveland is 52-52 against teams with winning records.
Minnesota is 56-43 against teams with losing records.
Coach’s Conclusion
I still give the nod to Cleveland here based on the pitching
advantage and past history of the starters.
Minnesota definitely has an edge in the odds and ends and offensively as
well. But in my method of handicapping,
pitching trumps everything else. I like
the Indians.
The Pick 1*
Indians -131 Westgate
Pick Made: Sep 23 2015 9:50AM PST