Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
Tuesday 1* MLB Pick
Tuesday, Sept. 22
7:05 pm Texas Rangers at Oakland A’s
The Pick 1*
Texas Rangers -125 Westgate
Rangers Can’t Let Up
The Rangers vaulted into first place by sweeping the
Astros. But the Astros haven’t gone away
and are nipping the Rangers’ heels. The
Astros have put together 3 straight wins and the Tanger lead is just 1 game.
The Pitchers
Perez, Rangers
Martin Perez goes for the Rangers. Perez, who came off the DL this season to join
the rotation, is 3-5 with a 4.96 era.
Perez’s last start was one of his best.
He tossed 7 innings against the Astros allowing only 1 run on 9
hits. He walked 1 and fanned 3. Perez has been hit on the road. He’s winless
on the road with an 0-4 mark and a 5.18 era.
He’s 1-2 in his last 3 games with a 4.50 era. In his last 7 games Perez is 2-3 with a 4.14
era. Perez is 1-2 with a 4.50 era in
September. Billy Butler is hitting .333
and Coco Crisp is hitting .375 and Josh Phegley is at .333, all with minimal at
bats. Perez is 3-4 versus Oakland with a
5.59 era. That high era is the result of
an April 2014 against the A’s where he gave up 8 runs in a little more than 4
innings. In his previous start he
pitched a 9 inning, 3 hit shut-out against Oakland. He hasn’t faced the A’s this season.
Nolin, A’s
Sean Molin goes to the hill for Oakland. Nolin is 1-1 with a 3.24 era. Nolin has only thrown 16 2/3 innings this
season so we must take his numbers with a big grain of salt. Nolin’s home era is 4.50. In his last start he gave up 5 hits and 2
runs in 5 innings to the White Sox. He
had a start against Texas on Sept. 12 and held them to 1 run and 5 hits in 5
2/3. IN 3 at bats Elvis Andrus is
hitting .667 against Nolin. Adrian
Beltre is 1-3 and Shin-Soo Choo is also 1-3.
Mike Napoli hit a bomb against Nolin and is 1-3 as well. In his brief major league career Nolin is
lifetime 1-2 with a 6.16 era. Nolin
pitched 1 game with the Blue Jays in 2013 with an era of 45.00 and one game in
2014 with an era of 9.00. In 6 seasons
in the minor leagues at all levels Nolin was 34-24 with a 3.19 era. This season he started 12 games at Triple-A
and went 2-2 with 2.66 era.
The Bullpens
Oakland - 4.02
era at home ; 24 saves and 22 blown saves
Texas – 4.34 era on road ; 42 saves and 15 blown
saves
It’s hard to declare a winner in the pitching aspect of the
game. Nolin has pitched well in 16 2/3
innings this season and has also pitched well against the Rangers. However, if I was a Ranger fan I would be
happy to see that the big guns (Andrus,Beltre, Choo and Napoli have all had
success). Even though the era is worse I
think the Texas pen gets the nod.
Oakland’s record of 24 saves and 22 blown saves is horrible.
The Hitters
Rangers
The Rangers average 4.5 runs per game. They drop to 4.01 on the road but go up to
4.6 against LHP. They have averaged a
healthy 6.6 runs per game in their last 7.
They average 4.5 at night and 4.2 in division. Texas ranks 6th in MLB in runs per
game. Texas ranks 13th in MLB
HR per game at 1.04. Texas ranks 9th
in MLB total walks per game. Texas ranks
12th in total bases per game.
Texas is 11th in MLB batting average at .255. Texas ranks 9th in MLB on base %
at .323.
Oakland
Oakland averages 4.3 runs per game. They average the same at home and get 4.0
runs per game against LHP. They’ve
averaged 6.1 in their last 7 games, average 4.5 at night and 4.6 in
division. Oakland ranks 16th
in MLB runs per game at 4.26. Oakland
ranks 21st in MLB HR per game at 90 but just .73 per game at
home. Oakland ranks 16th in
MLB walks per game. Oakland lands at 18th
in MLB total bases. Oakland is 16th
in MLB batting average at .252. Oakland
is 20th in MLB on base % at .312.
The hitting is pretty even.
But I think Texas has superior fire power with Fielder, Beltre and
Napoli.
Odds and Ends
Texas is 80-69 and Oakland is 64-86.
Both teams have a 0.00 run differential.
Texas is 43-34 on the road and Oakland is 33-42 at home.
Texas is 17-10 on the road when the total is 8/8.5. Oakland is 6-6 at home in same situation.
Texas is 12-7 in September.
Oakland is 6-12 in September.
Texas is a disturbing 30-36 against division. Oakland is 30-37.
Texas is 59-48 at night.
Oakland is 40-54 at night.
Texas is 38-30 after a loss.
Oakland is 36-49 after a loss.
Texas is 29-29 against LHP.
Oakland is 15-28.
Texas is 19-16 against teams with losing records in the
second half.
Oakland is 16-22 against teams with winning records in the
second half.
Coach’s Conclusion:
The Odds and Ends give Texas a sizeable advantage in this
matchup. If Nolin has turned into a super
pitcher then we will be wrong. But Nolin
has had shots in the majors for 3 straight years and this is the first time he
has had success. I need more than 16 2/3
innings to decide. I’ll take Texas.
The Pick 1*
Texas -125 Westgate
Pick Made: Sep 22 2015 9:51AM PST