Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
Monday MLB 1*
Monday, Sept. 21
5:40 pm Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
The Pick Pirates
1* -139 Pinnacle
This is one of the toughest times of the year in MLB.
We’ve had to cut our plays down because the prices are just too high or there
is too much uncertainty with the rosters. Nevertheless, we went 3-1 over
the weekend and now stand at +11.65 units since we started MLB at Pregame. We
went 7-2 in CFB on Saturday and 3-1 in NFL.
Clint Hurdle Returns
to Colorado With Playoffs on His Mind
Eight years ago Clint Hurdle was manager of the Colorado
Rockies when they went to the World Series.
He’s back in Colorado with Pittsburgh now and with a magic number of 3
to clinch a playoff spot this season, he’s happy to be in Colorado.
The Pitchers
Burnett, Pirates
Burnett is 8-5 with a 3.15 era this season. After spending 6 weeks on the DL with an
elbow tendon problem, Burnett has returned with 2 effective performances. He’s allowed 5 earned runs and 11 hits in 10
1/3 innings. He has walked 3 but fanned
10. Burnett is 6-2 with a 4.03 era on
the road. Burnett is just 3-4 versus the
Rockies in his career with a 3.18 era.
At Coors Field, however, Burnett is 0-2 with a 7.30 era. Burnett has not faced the Rockies since
2013. Burnett’s 6-2 road record is
impressive to say the least.
Gray, Rockies
Gray has yet to secure a win in 8 starts. It doesn’t look likely in his 9th
start either. He has shown some
improvement with a 3.60 era in September.
In his last start he allowed the Dodgers 6 this and 2 runs in 4 2/3
innings. Gray is far better on the road
than he is at home. In home starts he is
0-0 with a 7.87 era. Gray has gone
against the Pirates once this season and took the loss while giving up 3 runs
on 7 hits in 4 2/3 innings. He threw a
season high 92 pitches in his last start which only went 4 2/3 innings.
The Bullpens
Pirates – 3.11 era on the road ; 51 saves and 13 blown saves
Colorado – 5.06 era at home ; 35 saves and 19 blown saves
If you are thinking that the 5.06 era at Coors Field is an aberration
because of the location, the bullpen era for all games is 4.62.
The Hitters
Pirates – The Bucs score 4.3 runs per game. On the road they are good for 4.2 runs per
game. Versus RHP they score 4.3. The Pirates have been held to 3.3 runs per
game in their last 7. However, those
last 7 were played against the Cubs and Dodgers. The Bucs got to see Kershaw, Greinke, and
Arrieta among others. They score 4.3
runs per game on the road.
Rockies – The Rockies score 4.5 runs per game. At home they chalk up 5.5 runs per game. They score 4.7 versus RHP and 4.2 at
night.
While it may appear as if the Rockies dwarf the Pirates
offensively, that isn’t the case.
Playing half their game at Coors Field ups their numbers considerably. It’s also why the Rockies pitchers and
bullpen have abnormally high numbers.
The Odds and Ends will clarify things.
Odds and Ends
The Pirates are 89-60 and the Rockies are 63-86.
Pittsburgh score 4.3 per game and gives up 3.7 per game.
The Rockies score 4.5 per game and give up 5.2 runs per
game.
The Pirate run differential is a PLUS 0.6. The Rockie run differential is MINUS 0.7.
Pirates are 39-35 on the road. Rockies are 33-41 at home.
Pirates are 62-44 at night.
Rockies are 36-64 at night.
Pirates are 71-46 against RHP. Rockies are 54-58 versus RHP.
The Pirates are 56-32 after a win. The Rockies are 37-49 after a loss.
The Pirates are 62-39 vs teams w/losing records.
The Rockies are 29-63 vs teams w/winning records.
Coach’s Conclusion:
It is always tough to use numbers vs the Rockies at home or
away. I personally tend to stay away
from Rockies’ games for that very reason.
But the Odds and Ends tells a
more accurate story when dealing with Colorado.
And that area is about as strong as can be in that regard. The 62-44 vs 36-64 night records are strong. But the cruncher here is the records of the
teams versus winnng and losing teams. It’s
incredibly trended to the Pirates. I’m
taking the Bucs today.
The Pick 1*
Pirates -139 Pinnacle
Pick Made: Sep 21 2015 10:53AM PST