Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
Friday 1* MLB Play
Friday, Sept. 18
5:05 pm Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
The Pick 1*
Texas Rangers -146 Pinnacle
Rangers Look for 6th
Straight
The Texas Rangers just swept the Houston Astros and moved
into first place in the AL West. They’ve
won 5 straight and 6 out of 7. They
certainly plan to keep going against the Mariners.
The Pitchers
Paxton, Seattle
In just under 62 innings of work this year, Paxton is 3-4
with a 3.08 era. He’s 1-0 on the road
with an era of 3.76. He’s on the
downward trend in his last 3 starts going 1-2 with a 4.61 era. Last week Paxton made his first start after
15 weeks on the DL for a finger injury.
He gave up 3 runs on two hits will walking three and striking out 4
against the Rockies in 3 innings. Paxton
is 1-4 at night with an era of 3.24. LH
are teeing off on Paxton to the tune of .400, while RH are only hitting
.197. Paxton is 1-1 against Texas with a
1.76 era. He has faced the Rangers one
time this year and was chased after 2 2/3 innings after giving up 7 runs, 2
earned and 9 hits.
Gallardo, Rangers
Gallardo has faced Seattle 3 times this year and he likes
the results. He’s gone 2-1 with a 1.56
era. He shut them out twice, once on 6
hits in 6 innings and once of 5 hits in 5 1/3.
The only time the M’s scored against Gallardo they got to him for 3 runs
and 3 hits in 6 innings. Gallardo is
12-10 on the year with a 3.35 era. AT
home Yovani is 7-5 with a 3.42 mark. He’s
been roughed up a bit in his last 3 starts for a 5.53. But included in those 3 starts was the
scoreless 5 1/3 against Seattle.
Gallardo has gone 4-1 with a 2.92 era in his last 7 and 6-4 with a 3.75
era in his last 15. Gallardo is 8-7 with
a 3.71 era at night. LH are hitting .267
against him and RH .245.
It’s hard to separate the two starters due to the inactivity
of Paxton. I’m going to give the edge to
Gallardo because he has been pitching regularly and with reasonable
effectiveness. The Rangers are holding a
hot hand now and the pitching staff has responded as well.
The Bullpens
Mariners
It hardly seems
possible but the M’s pen on the road is worse than the Rangers pen at
home. That didn’t seem likely. But the M’s pen on the road has an era of
4.60 and that comes with 43 saves and 20 blown saves.
Rangers
Let’s face it, the Texas pen is a mess and has been all
year. If they get into the playoffs,
which looks likely, they need to move some starters around and get the pen more
effective. They carry an era of 4.22 at
home 42 saves and 15 blown saves.
The Hitters
Seattle
Seattle scores 4.0 runs per game which is on the low
side. In their last 6 games they have
scored 3 or fewer 4 times. They improve
on the road scoring 4.3 runs per game and get 4.1 against RHP. They’ve averaged 4.6 in their last 7 games
and score 4.1 at night and against division.
Seattle is 21st in MLB with 8.5 hits per game. Seattle is 5th in MLB HR per game
at 1.22. The M’s are only 25th
in batting average with an overall number of .248. Seattle drops to .247 on the road. Seattle ranks 21st in MLB on base
% at .310.
Texas
The Rangers average 4.5 runs per game, a full half a run
higher than the M’s. They hit better at
home scoring 4.9 runs per game. They get
4.6 versus LHP. They have averaged 7.4
rpg in their last 7 games and they score 4.4 at night and 4.2 against division. Texas is 11th in MLB with 8.69 hits per game. Texas is 13th in MLB HR per game
at 1.05. Texas is 11th in MLB
batting average at .256 though they hit .276 at home. Texas is 11th in MLB on base % at
.322.
Although there isn’t much difference in the numbers, the
only advantage Seattle has is in HR.
Other than that the Rangers come out on top.
Odds and Ends
Seattle
The Mariners score 4.0 per game but give up 4.5. That’s a MINUS run differential of 0.5 and
that’s why they are 71-76. Strangely,
they are 37-35 on the road. They’ve had
an excellent September going 10-5. They
are much better than Texas against division opponents going 35-29. The M’s are 49-50 at night and 50-47 against RHP. After a win they are just 25-45. They haven’t put together 2 in a row very
often. Seattle is 52-51 against teams
with winning records.
Texas.
The Rangers score 4.5 runs per game and give up 4.5 runs per
game. They are 79-67 on the year. They are 38-33 at home. They are 11-5 in September. They are a weak 29-34 against the
division. They like playing at night
where they are 58-47. They are dead even
at 28-28 versus lefties. They are 42-36
after a win and 13-11 after 3 or more consecutive wins. They are a disappointing 51-54 against teams
with a losing record.
Looking at all the numbers, pitching, hitting and odds and
ends, there isn’t a heck of a lot of difference in these two teams. Yet Texas is 79-67 and Seattle is 71-76. Seattle actually has a tiny edge over Texas
in head to head play. Texas is ahead
28-26 all time. But Seattle is 10-6
against the Rangers this year. They have
gone 13-12 at Texas over the last 3 years and 4-2 at Texas this season.
Though you might not expect it, both these teams trend
heavily to the under head to head. 31 of
50 games played between them in the last 3 years have gone under. 11 of 15 games this year have gone
under. 17 of 24 games at Texas have gone
under in the last 3 years and all 5 games have gone under in Texas this
year.
Coach’s Conclusion
Baseball is a game of streaks and Texas is on a hot one
right now. They must be as pumped as can
be sitting in first place this late in the season. They have edges all around except in head to
head matches and I think they are the right side today. Seattle can’t seem to start a streak and have
followed one win with loss 45 of 70 times.
I’m taking Texas.
The Pick 1*
Rangers -146 Pinnacle
Pick Made: Sep 18 2015 12:59PM PST