Analysis:
2015 MLB Record
114 – 104 for +10.67 Units
**************************
#1: Houston Astros +101
When these two pitchers last faced
off in Rangers’ ballpark on 08/03 McCullers was listed as a -125 road
favorite. Today he’s an underdog. There’s value in this number based on that
itself. Yes McCullers got absolutely
rocked in that first outing as he only got 1 out and allowed 6 runs prior to
being taken out, but to expect the same result again today is unrealistic. One key advantage in youngster’s favor in
this matchup is his ability to get lefties out.
He has a 10.5 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, and 2.0/2.9 FIP/xfIP against left-handers
ranking 13th on the season.
He’s much better against lefties than righties showing a reverse-platoon
effect. Rangers will have 5 lefties in
the lineup today (Fielder, Moreland, Choo, Gallo, Odor), all power-hitters in
the lineup. If McCullers can contain
their production, he should have a very successful outing in this one. Opposite him is Colby Lewis, a pitcher who
ranks 132nd in my database.
Over the last month Lewis has registered a terrible 10% K-rate, a low
GB-rate of 32% (32% LD-rate also indicating he’s being hit well), and a SIERA
of 5.5, the 10th WORST mark in the league over this time-span. Lewis is coming off a 9-inning ‘gem’ so to
speak, but he only had 4 K’s, was hit hard 36% of the time (really high
number), and registered a BABIP of .080.
I think ‘luck’ had just a tad (sarcastic) something to do with this
start. Today will be the 5th
time this season that he’s facing the Astros.
Here’s how he’s done against them in the previous 4 starts:
04/12: 25% Hard-hit %; 50% FB-rate; 4.2 SIERA
05/06: 45% Hard-hit %; 46% FB-rate; 3.8 SIERA
07/18: 21% Hard-hit%; 47% FB-rate; 2.9 SIERA
08/03: 40% Hard-hit%; 44% FB-rate; 5.2 SIERA
Out of the previous 4 starts only 1
of them was a really good one, the 07/18 one, which took place in Houston. The rest of them have been pretty poor and
both starts @ Tex (first and the last one) were the worst two of the season against
the ‘Stros. It’s also disconcerting that
Lewis is allowing so many fly-balls to this Houston squad, which is of course
known to hit for a lot of power (2nd in ISO against righties). Better BP (2 vs 24), better offense (7 vs 19)
and a better starter on the mound for Houston tonight. I expect them to grab a win and salvage at
least 1 game from this series.
Premium-Free play:
#2: Minnesota Twins -130 (1st
5 Innings Only)
Let’s compare Santiago’s last 5
home and away starts:
L5 home: 1.3 K/BB; 1.6 HR/9; 3.2 ERA
L5 away: 1.7 K/BB; 2.2 HR/9; 7.4 ERA
He hasn’t pitched well in either
location, but has been lucky enough to maintain a lower ERA at home than on the
road. Overall though he ranks as my 164th
starting pitcher out of 164 (dead-last) over the last 30-days. His BB-rate of 17% is higher than his K-rate
of 16%, he’s allowing almost 2 HR’s per 9 innings, and his SIERA of 6.3 is a
full run higher than his 5.3 ERA during this time-frame. I have Santiago’s eERA (expected ERA) at 6.6
based on his performance over the last 30-days.
By comparison I have Milone’s eERA of 3.6, a full 3 runs lower. Milone is pitching well right now keeping the
ball on the ground (48% GB-rate), inducing a strong SwStr-rate of 10% (league
average is about 7.5%), and keeping the ball in the park (0.6 HR/9). He’ll also be facing an Angels lineup that
ranks 26th against lefties on the year and 29th overall
offensively in the last month. By
comparison, Twins are 15th against left-handers. I’ll take the BP’s out of this one as LA has
a strong advantage there (Twins rank 28th and still don’t have their
closer Perkins back) and will play this one for 1st 5 innings only.
Good Luck
Pick Made: Sep 17 2015 10:33AM PST