Analysis:We know from experience the Twins are better against left handed pitching, and at home where they are (heading into Wednesday) 43-27 - and they're also still fighting to play into October. I was reticent to fade the fact that Milone has seen these guys when he was with the A's, but honestly, it's more the role players that had some success against him. He has only allowed two balls to leave the park since the end of July, and comes in off a horrid outing against Chicago. However, that was a 10 day turnaround to where the White Sox had seen him last, and in the first meeting he three-hit them and shut them out through 7 innings, so that's to be expected. The Twins pen has been stellar, producing a 1.57 ERA over the last week. Conversely, when Santiago is done he's got perhaps one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him, and a team that played late in Seattle and traveled. Santiago is over valued on what he DID, not what he is DOING. Here's the rub - he's pitched well at home, but on the road he's 4-7 with an ERA pf 4.09 (almost a full 1.5 runs worse than at home). He's a flyball pitcher who's given up a dozen HR's at home and away, but in 20 less innings on the road. He was 0-4 in August with a 6.21 ERA - September looks better, but in two HOME games. He hasn't faced the Twins this season, but his three years splits against Minnesota look like this - 32 hits allowed in 23 innings, a .320 batting average against with four jacks, and it's worse than that at Target Field. Even the leadoff hitter (usually) Aaron Hicks is 2-5(off of Santiago), with both of those hits going over the fence. Maybe they'll even stick Nunez in a game since he's got two bombs off of Hector. Mauer has hit himm reasonable in a dozen at bats with only on K, and Mauer is just not that quick against LHP anymore. I'd have released this sooner, but was waiting to make sure they'd play Thursday - so no pitching change - I am also playing the over, knowing that it's highly unlikely that the Twins won't get to four.
The only other play I might consider is Cleveland. Ventura sucks - MAYBE over too. We'll see
Pick Made: Sep 16 2015 8:52PM PST