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910 ARI / 909 SDP Under 8.5 Pinnacle
dime bet
Analysis:
2015 MLB Record
114 – 102 for +13.01 Units
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#1: UNDER 8.5 SDP/ARZ -115
Ross is coming off a start where he allowed 3 HR’s 7 innings. That’s an outlier as he’s only allowed 5 this year prior to that outing. It was reported afterwards that he was pitching with a ‘stomach bug’. After 81 pitches in that one, and in much better health, expect Ross to be on his game once again. Last two times in Arizona he went 15 innings allowed 9 hits and only 3 ER’s with 15K’s. I think we’ll see a strong outing from a top-20 pitcher tonight. The real key to this play is Jhoulys Chacin who is making his 3rd MLB start this season. He has 11 K’s through the first 13 innings so is pitching well. The big factor in his favor is that Chacin has a filthy slider, by far his best pitch. Well, he’s facing a Padres offense that ranks dead last in the majors against a slider. San Diego ranks 22nd offensively on the year and today they could be expected to perform at an even worse level than that. Both BP’s have their key guys well rested. My model has this game at 7.4 total runs and 9 would be needed for this play to lose. I like the value here and expect the ‘Under’ to be a strong play tonight.
Good Luck
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