Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s 1* Tuesday Pick
Tuesday, Sept. 1
5:10 pm Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick UNDER 7.5
-120 William Hill
Pitcher’s Duel as Pirates Start 17
Game Stretch Against NL Central
The Pitchers
Pirates, Cole Brewers,
Nelson
·
15-7, 2.49 era 10-10,
3.87 era
·
7-4, 2.13 era road 4-3, 3.43 era home
·
1-1, 2.14 era last 3 1-1,5.28 era last 3
·
2-3, 2.80 last 7 3-1,
2.72 era last 7
·
7-5, 2.83 era last 15 8-4, 3.36 era last 15
·
8-6, 2.89 era night 10-7, 3.21 era night
·
1-3, 3.13 August 2-1,
4.03 August
·
2-4, 2.75 era post All-Star 4-1, 2.92 era post
All-Star
·
LH hit .224 against LH hit .299 against
·
RH hit .255 against RH hit 1.93 against
·
38-19, 3.05 era career 12-19, 4.01 career
·
7 1/3 inn, 1 run, 5 hits last start (Miami) 3.1 inn, 5 runs, 4 hits, 8 BB (Indians)
·
2-2, 3.23 era vs Milwaukee 3-1, 2.22 era vs
Pittsburgh
Pirates, Cole – 8-16 to the under in 26 starts
Brewers, Nelson – 13-12 to the over in 26 starts
Bullpens
·
Pirates – 2.73 road Brewers -3.68 home
·
Another edge for the Pirate pitching
·
Allow 3.6 runs per game Allow 4.5 runs per game
The Hitters
Pirates Brewers
·
4.2 runs per game 4.0 runs per game
·
4.3 runs per game road 4.2 runs per game home
·
4.2 runs per game vs RHP 4.0 runs per game vs RHP
·
3.6 runs per game last 7 4.6 runs per game last 7
·
4.2 runs per game night 4.3 runs per game night
·
3.8 runs per game division 3.8 runs per game division
·
9.02 hits per game 8.45 hits per game
·
0.85 HR per game 0.90
HR per game
·
13.71 total bases per game 13.33 total bases per game
·
.260 batting average .251 batting average
·
.395 slugging % .396
slugging %
·
.322 on base % .305
on base %
Odds and Ends
Pirates Brewers
·
52.1% games under 48.8% games under
·
After loss 52.8% under After win 56%
under
·
53.7% under away 46.2%
under home
·
55.2% under as favorite 51.4% under as dog
·
58.1% under away favorite 42.9% under as home dog
·
47.7% under in division 58.3% under in division
·
56-61 to the under 62-59 to the over
·
8-11 to under as road fav 2-6 to under as home dog +125/+150
·
25-29 to under road 35-30 to over home
·
23-21 to over in division 20-28 to under in division
·
42-42 at night 43-35
to over night
·
43-46 to under vs RHP 52-44 t over vs RHP
·
22-23 to under after a loss 22-28 to the under after win
·
27-47 to under vs team losing 31-46 to under vs team w/winning record
Record
Coach’s Conclusion:
While this is no slam dunk, the trend here is to the
under. We look at the dominant team and
the dominant pitcher and the trends speak to the under. Cole has gone 8 over and 16 under in his
starts. The teams are aligned to the under
whether favorite or dog. The records versus
losing and winning teams is also heavily shaded to the under. I’m going with the under.
The Play 1* Pirates/Brewers UNDER 7.5 -120
William Hill
Pick Made: Aug 31 2015 11:22PM PST