Analysis:
#955 / 4:05pm PT - 7:05pm ET
NEW YORK METS w/ Niese @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES w/ Harang
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Two of the HOTTEST recent offenses in Major League Baseball wrap up their 4-game series tonight in Philly. With EACH of the first three games having gone OVER, there’s openly one way to go tonight in Game Four. It helps us that we have a decent OVER Umpire that will be working behind the dish. And it also helps us that we have two bottom-of-the-barrel rotation pitchers that will be squaring off tonight… with both in POOR current form as well.
Lefty John Niese of the visiting Mets is already a solid OVER pitcher on the year, with a record of 13-8-1 O/U. He comes in with a pretty decent ERA of 3.80 for the season. But regression has set in for him as of late, as that ERA has ballooned to 5.89 in his last three starts. He got hit REAL hard in his last start, which lasted only 5 innings. In that game, he allowed 13 boys and walks and 7 earned runs in an eventual 14-9 win. He’s had a tendency toward giving up more Gopher Balls as well, with 4 HR’s allowed in those last three starts.
On the flip side, Aaron Harang of the host Phillies is a true bottom feeder. The worst starter on the entire Philadelphia staff. You wouldn’t think that he could sink any lower, but he HAS in his last few starts. Harang has given up 16 earned runs in his last 17 innings pitched for an ERA of 8.47. He’s also had a tendency to give hop more Gopher Balls as of late. That’s a clear-cut warning sign against a Mets team that’s hit 7 home runs in Games 1 thru 3 of this series.
The METS are hitting like nobody’s business. NOW 9-1 O/U in their last ten games, with an average of 7.7 runs per game. Also 12-3-1 O/U last 16 road games versus right-handed starters… 8-1 O/U as a favorite… 9-1-1 O/U on the road with a line of 7-8.5 runs.
The PHILLIES are a great HOME ‘Over’ team. Now 26-6-4 O/U in their last 36 home games! Also 21-8-2 O/U off a loss… 18-6-2 O/U versus any opponent who scored 5+ runs in their previous game… 18-7-1 O/U versus WINNING opponents… and 11-4 O/U on Thursdays.
Working behind the dish in tonight’s Game Four will be ALFONSO MARQUEZ. This Man in Blue comes in on a current streak of 6-2 O/U in his last eight games since late June… with an average of 9.2 runs per game. He’s been behind the plate on numerous Mets and Phillies games over the years. Marquez has gone 23-8-2 O/U in Philadelphia games over the last five years. And in the last two years, he;s gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in all NewYork Mets games.
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Pick Made: Aug 27 2015 8:08AM PST