Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
Thursday 2* MLB
Thursday, August 27
4:05 pm San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
The Pick Washington Nationals 2*
-164 Pinnacle
Joe Ross Goes to the
Hill For Nats
Joe Ross goes for the Washington Nationals today, one day
after his brother Tyson Ross pitched against the Nationals on Wednesday. Tyson got the win for the Padres 6-5. Joe tries to return the favor today.
The Pitchers
Andrew Cashner,
Padres
We may see the ‘new and improved’ version of Andrew
Cashner. Or perhaps last week was just
one of those weeks. In his last start
Cashner changed the grip on his slider which may have helped him shut down the
amazing Cardinals. Cashner allowed just
1 unearned run in 6 innings. He allowed
4 hits and walked 2 while fanning 8.
Perhaps the new grip was the key.
In his previous 2 starts Cashner was rocked by the Rockies and the Phils
for 7 runs and 15 hits in 11 1/3 innings.
Cashner is 5-12 on the year with a 4.03 era in 24 starts. In his last 7 games Cashner has gone 2-3 with
a 3.95 era. He’s gone 4-5 in his last 15
with a 4.74 era. Cashner hasn’t had much
success on the road going 2-6 with a 4.54 era in 14 starts. He’s a little better at night going 4-8 with
a much better 3.51 era. He has been
improving and in August he is 1-2 with a 3.47 era. Left handed hitters are hitting .290 against
him while righties are at .251. Cashner
has gone 1-3 vs the Nats with a 4.72 era.
In his one start this season he took a loss at home giving up 9 hits and
3 earned runs in 6 innings. Regardless
of his numbers, he doesn’t win much.
Joe Ross, Nationals
Ross has never faced the Padres before. He’s somewhat of a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
with an era of 4.97 on the road and just 2.27 at Nationals Park. He has gone 1-3 on the road and 3-2 at
home. For the season, Ross is 4-5 with a
3.56 era in 10 starts. He’s fanned 58
batters in 60 2/3 innings. In his last
start, at home, Ross went 7 frames against the Brewers giving up 1 run on 6
hits. Prior to that he was tuned up on
the road by the Dodgers and the Giants for a total of 9 runs and 12 hits in 8
2/3 innings. Ross does well in the dark
with a 2-2 record and a 3.13 era at night.
Before the All-Star break Ross was 2-1 with a 2.66 era but has tailed
off after the break to go 2-4 with a 4.02 era.
He hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any of his home starts. Ross is tough on right handers who only hit
.190 against him. Lefties do better at
.295.
The Bullpens
Padres – 3.60 on the
road Nats – 3.40
at home
The pitching match-up and the bullpens are very close. Did Cashner’s ‘new’ grip lead to that big
game against the Cards? We won’t know
until the game is underway or maybe not at all.
Will Ross continue to dominate at home?
We have 5 starts worth of evidence but that is hardly a slam dunk. With Cashner at 4.75 on the road in 14 games
we do have a pattern. In his last start
on the road the Rockies got him for 4 runs and 7 hits in just 5 innings. Of course, that was at Coors Field. Prior to the Coors Field escapade Cashner
held the Brewers to 8 hits and 2 runs in 6 innings. Ross has faced the Brewers twice this year
and held them to 1 run in 7 innings at home and allowing 2 runs in 8 innings on
the road. Since the Nats acquired Jonathan Papelbon, I think you need to give
them the bullpen edge. I think if you have
to give an edge in starting pitchers you probably should take the home team –
but it’s close.
The Hitters
Padres Nats
·
62-64 63-62
·
Score 4.1 runs per game Score
4.2 runs per game
·
Score 4.1 per game road Score
4.1 runs per game home
·
Score 3.9 runs per game vs RHP Score
4.3 runs per game vs RHP
·
Score 5.7 runs per game last 7 Score 6.7 runs per game last
7
·
Score 4.2 runs per game night Score 4.3 runs per game night
This is closer than the puzzling pitcher match-up.
·
4.12 runs per game road 4.07 runs per game home
·
8.55 hits per game road 8.03 hits per game home
·
0.86 HR per game road 1.05 HR per game home
·
2.80 BB per game road 3.26 BB per game home
·
8.36 K’s per game road 7.50 K’s per game home
·
13.34 total bases per game road 13.00 total bases per game home
·
.381 slugging % road .401 slugging % home
·
.301 on base % road .317 on base % home
This is also too close to call except for one thing. These two teams are odd from the standpoint
that both teams have better numbers on the road than they do at home. It makes sense for the Nationals because
their stadium ranks 27th out of 30 stadiums in ‘hitter friendly’
status. Obviously playing half their
games their lowers their numbers. The
Padres Petco Park is near the middle of the pack of ‘hitter friendly’ stadiums
at 17th. Maybe the Odds and
Ends will give us a better picture.
Odds and Ends
Padres Nationals
·
62-64 63-62
·
Allow 4.4 runs per game Allow 4.0 runs per game
·
- 44 runs run differential + 26 runs run
differential
·
-0.3 run differential per game Plus 0.2 run differential per
game
·
31-34 on road 34-25
at home
·
12-11 in August 9-15
in August
·
46-41 at night 38-43
at night
·
46-52 vs RHP 47-48
vs RHP
·
33-40 vs team w/winning record 39-36 vs team w/losing record
·
.244 batting average .249 batting average
·
.244 batting average road .249 batting average home
·
.242 batting avg vs RHP .250 batting average vs RHP
This doesn’t point us to a conclusive winner either. But if you look carefully, the home team Nats
do have the slightest edge in most categories.
Combine this with the plus production numbers for the Padres on the road
and the minus production numbers (compared to all) at home for the Nats, I
think you can say the Nats have a slight edge in a wide variety of areas. The
run differential is a pretty solid number and the Nats hold the edge there. They are also more successful at home than
the Friars are on the road. They have
stunk it up in August though and that’s a big negative.
Coach’s Conclusion:
I’m going to say that Ross’s home pitching numbers are
legit. I feel the same way about Cashner’s
road numbers. If the new grip on his
slider has all of a sudden transformed him into Randy Johnson, then so be
it. One game is not enough of a sample
for me. I’m going with the Nats who still
have a faint hope of making the playoffs despite their horrendous
underachieving year after year.
The Pick 2*
Washington Nationals -164
Pinnacle
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Pick Made: Aug 26 2015 9:04PM PST