Analysis:
7:30pm ET - 4:30pm PT / #405
ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW YORK JETS
1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
There may be a tendency for Totals Players to be a little gun-shy about this selection, based on what New York did last week in Game One. In that game against the Lions, the Jets scored only three points amidst their current quarterback difficulties. But our database tells us to go OVER the Total for teams who scored only a field goal or less in their last preseason game. Not to mention, that both of these rookie head coaches (Todd Bowles of New York and Dan Quinn of Atlanta) will still want to ‘make their mark’ in Game Two. Pre-season win / loss results and higher-scoring action are much more important to first-year coaches.
It looks like Atlanta might already be in regular season mode when it comes to point production and individual QB statistics. The Atlanta Falcons pulled off a 31-24 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 1 of the NFL Preseason games. T.J. Yates completed 9 of 15 passes for 105 yards to lead the way for the Falcons. Matt Ryan, the starting quarterback, threw for 86 yards in 6 of 6 passes for 86 yards and one touchdown against no interceptions. Sean Renfree completed 6 of 7 passes for 68 yards. So that’s an astounding combination of 21 for 28 and 259 passing yards.
Things are a little different for the Jets, but I’m sure you’ve heard the expression ‘things can change in a New York minute’. In 2015, that expression is a spot on analysis of the Jets’ preseason. With ‘Broken Jaw-gate’ resulting in extended REST time for Geno Smith, the Bryce Petty era just got a kickstart. Yes, starter Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably play the first quarter tonight. And rcecent signee Matt Flynn (another QB with starting experience) might even see some reps tonight. But the bulk of work at the signal-caller position will be for the rookie from Baylor. Petty should get the lions share of repetitions at QB in Friday’s game versus the Falcons. He didn’t look sharp last week, but that can be chalked up to nerves… his first time in a NFL game… and just not being flat-out ready.
So Atlanta is off a Week One win… and New York is off a Week One loss. When we plug those results into our NFL preseason database, the following high-scoring results are spit out: 26-13 O/U since 2004: All NFL preseason GAME TWO road teams off a SU win (ATLANTA) versus any opponent off a SU loss (NEW YORK). Since 2011, these games have gone 13-3 O/U… including a PERFECT 10-0 O/U when the OU line is LESS than (<) 41 points (like Friday’s line).
Atlanta scored 31 points at home last week in their win versus Tennessee… 9-1 O/U last four years: All NFL preseason road teams who scored 31 > points at HOME the previous game (FALCONS)… when the OU line is < 40 points.
New York scored only THREE points in their road loss to Detroit last week… 9-1 O/U last four years: All NFL pre-season teams who scored 3 or less points in their previous game (JETS) when the OU line is > 41 points.
Pick Made: Aug 20 2015 10:16AM PST