Analysis:
1:00pm ET - 10:00am PT / #218
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
The line in this interleague game opened at 41 points… went up to 41.5… and then crossed ‘OVER’ (pun intended) to 42 this morning. Get your play in as soon as possible before it goes up even higher. Based on the point spread and OU line, we are in a ‘DEAD ZONE’ right now. Here’s why: The Eagles are currently favored by -4 points and the OU line is 42 points. That means that ODDSMAKERS are forecasting a FINAL SCORE of Philadelphia 23 - Indianapolis 19. If you know anything about ‘key numbers’ when it comes to Totals, then you know that it’s very unlikely that a team will finish exactly on 23 points… or exactly on 19 points. The MUCH more likely scenario based on NFL key numbers is a score of 24 to 20. Those are two points totals that are VERY likely to occur based on a current point spread of -4 points. So based on that, we’re still getting TWO points of Over / Under line value. As long as you get your play in UNDER 43 points (in terms of your OU line), then you should be able to exploit this ‘dead zone’ final score.
If you read my article in issue #1 of the PLAYBOOK pre-season newsletter, then you already are aware of the great recent OVER tendencies of the Philadelphia Eagles. One of the best HOME ‘Over’ teams. One of the best ROAD ‘Over’ teams. One of the best ‘Over’ teams PERIOD (11-1-1 O/U last 13 pre-season games last three years). They’ve gone 7-1 O/U in the Chip Kelly era, with an extremely GAUDY average of OVER 50 points per game (51.6 to be exact). They’ve gone 11-3 O/U (79% Overs) at home since the 2008 season. They’ve averaged 48.2 ppg in their pre-season GAME ONES inn the last six years (5-1 O/U). On the flip side, the Colts are no slouches when it comes to pre-season OVERS either. 13-8 O/U in their last 21 pre-season games. And 4-1 O/U in their last five GAME ONES (45.0 ppg).
Today’s OU line is the HIGHEST Week One line in the last 18 years! But don’t let that scare you off. That’s because: WEEK ONE games with an OU line of 40 or more points (COLTS @ EAGLES) have gone 5-1 O/U since 2000… with an average of 46.5 points per game.
Laying significant points on a Sunday? Then go ‘OVER’! Day of the Week OU tendencies will seal the deal… NFL pre-season SUNDAY home favorites of -3 or more points (EAGLES) have gone 10-2 O/U in the last five seasons...
Pick Made: Aug 16 2015 7:58AM PST