Analysis:
Coach Fletcher’s
Sunday 2* Pick
Sunday, August 16
10:05 am New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick Toronto Blue Jays 2* -125
Wesagate
Yankees Out to Return
the Favor
On August 9, the Jays completed a 3 game sweep of the
Yankees, vaulting themselves into the lead in the AL East. The Jays rattled off
11 wins in a row. Now, the Yanks will
try to return the favor. The Bronx
Bombers only scored 1 run in that series, but in winning the first 2 games of
this set the NYY have scored 8, winning 4-3 and 4-1. Even if Toronto wins Sunday, the NYY still
have a slim .5 game lead.
The Pitchers
Drew Hutchinson is NOT one of those pitchers where you can
say his record is better than it looks.
In fact, I think you can safely say that his record is better than it
should be. Hutchinson is 11 -2 on the
season, but he sports an era of 5.26 and a whip of 1.48. However, Hutchinson does love to pitch in
Rogers Centre where he has a 2.68 era compared to a 9.00 era on the road. Hutchinson faces top Yankee prospect Luis
Severino, who is making only his 3rd major league start. The exact opposite of Hutchinson, the Yankees
are averaging 0.5 runs per game support for Severino. The Jays give 6.6 to
Hutchinson.
Severino, NYY Hutchinson,
Jays
·
0-1, 2.45 era 11-2,
5.26 era
·
0-0, 3.00 era road 9-1, 2.68 era home
·
0-1, 2.45 era last 2 starts 2-0, 4.24 era
last 3
·
LH hit .250 against LH hit .264 against
·
RH hit .143 against RH hit .325 against
The Bullpens NYY – 3.31 era road Jays – 2.87 home
Hutchinson has given up 14 home runs in 125 innings pitched –
that’s about 1 per game. He’s 4-0 during
day games with an era of 5.49. He’s fond
of the turf, like they have in Toronto, going 10-1 with a 2.85 era. Severino has given up 1 home run in 11
innings. In his last start against the
Indians, Luis went 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 7 hits. In his first start against Boston, Luis went
5 innings and gave up just 2 hits and 1 earned run.
Hutchinson is 4-4 against the NYY. He faced them once in Yankee Stadium this
year and went 6 innings giving up 1 run on 3 hits. Last year he went against the Yankees at
Yankee Stadium allowing 2 runs on 5 hits in just 4 innings. In his one start last year at Rogers Centre,
Hutchinson held the Yankees scoreless for 7 innings allowing just 1 hit and
fanning 11.
It is hard to figure a pitcher like Hutchinson. That 11-2 record is Cy Young-like, but the
5.26 era certainly is not. Yet, he is an
entirely different character at home where he is 9-1 with a 2.68 era. He also held the Yanks to a single hit over 7
innings in his 2014 start at home.
The Hitters
These are arguably the two best offenses in baseball. Let’s take a look.
NYY Jays
·
4.8 runs per game (2nd MLB) 5.3 runs per game (1st
MLB)
·
4.5 runs per game road (3rd MLB) 5.6 runs
per game home (1st MLB)
·
4.6 runs per game vs RHP 5.2 runs per game vs RHP
·
2.6 runs per game last 7 4.4 runs per game last 7
·
3.0 runs per game turf 5.6 runs per game turf
·
4.3 runs per game day 5.4 runs per game day
·
4.3 runs in division 5.2 runs per game in
division
Now we can see why Hutchinson has 11 wins with an era above
5. What an offense!
·
8.82 hits per game (8th MLB) 8.81 hits per game (9th
MLB)
·
8.61 hits per game road (12th MLB) 9.02 hits per game home (7th
MLB)
·
1.34 HR per game (2nd MLB) 1.34 HR per game (2nd
MLB)
·
1.18 HR per game road 1.49 HR per game home
·
3.31 BB per game (4th MLB) 3.29 BB per game (5th
MLB)
·
7.39 K’s per game (11th MLB) 7.00 K’s per game (6th
MLB)
·
14.84 total bases per game (3rd MLB) 14.91 total bases per game (2nd
MLB)
·
14. 39 total bases per game road 15.69 total bases per game home
·
.429 slugging % (3rd MLB) .443 slugging % (1st
in MLB)
·
.406 slugging % away .479 slugging % home
·
.324 on base % (7th MLB) .330 on base % (2ND
mlb)
·
.314 on base % away .348 on base % home
·
.255 batting average .262 batting average
·
.247 average away .276 average home
·
Run differential +62 (5th MLB) Run differential +139 (1st
MLB)
·
Run differential +14 away Run differential +118 home
That’s a lot of numbers basically showing us what we already
knew. Both of these teams have
exceptional offense. The Yankee numbers
decline on the road. The Blue Jay
numbers increase at home.
The home and away run differentials are problematic for
Yankee fans. The runs per game on
artificial turf are also telling.
Odds and Ends
NYY Jays
·
64-51 64-54
·
31-30 road 39-22
home
·
6-7 in August 11-3
in August
·
28-21 in division 26-23 in division
·
20-15 day 26-20
day
·
7-5 on artificial turf (58%) 41-27 on artificial
turf (60%)
·
42-36 vs RHP 48-41
vs RHP
·
33-22 vs team w/winning record 37-28 vs team w/winning record
·
5-5 vs team w/winning record 2nd half 13-5 vs team w/winning record 2nd
half
Toronto has a home edge for sure. Hutchinson has a huge home edge. As good as Severino looks, we don’t know how
he’ll perform in a game like this. All
signs point to success and a bright future, but how can you go against a guy
who is 9-1 at home?
Coach’s Conclusion:
I don’t like the NYY chances of sweeping Toronto. They are a great home team that outperforms
their strong numbers when they play at Rogers Centre. Hutchinson has already won his last 4 starts
for the Jays and despite his earned run average, there is something about
Rogers Centre and artificial turf that turn him into a monster. If it happens a few times it may be
luck. If it happens 10 times I’d say
it’s a trend. I’m taking the Blue Jays.
The Pick Toronto Blue Jays 2*
-125 Westgate
Pick Made: Aug 15 2015 9:28PM PST