Analysis:
8:00pm ET - 5:00pm PT / #276
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
After going with an OVER on Friday night in NFL pre-season action, the Totals Train reverses course and ‘Goes LOW’ again on Saturday. Our first two ‘Unders’ of the pre-season brought home the bacon (Steelers / Vikings UNDER and Cowboys / Chargers UNDER), and we confidently expect another winner in the Minnesota / Tampa Bay game kicking off at 5:00pm PT.
Let’s start by mentioning that Tampa Bay was easily the BEST ‘Under’ team in the second half of the NFL season last year. In fact, the Buccaneers closed out the 2014 season by going 1-9 O/U in their last ten games. They look to be a solid UNDER team to follow in 2015. With that said, let’s not ignore Tampa Bay’s recent OU tendencies in the games that ‘don’t count’ (the PRE-season). The BUCCANEERS went a PERFECT 0-4 O/U in the preseason last year, with an average of only 33.8 combined points per game. And in the last three years if NFL ‘X’ play, Buccaneer ROAD games have gone 1-5 O/U (34.3 combined PPG). On the flip side, Minnesota is no stranger to low-scoring results in the pre-season either. We were ON the Minnesota ‘UNDER’ last Sunday in the Hall of Fame game versus the Steelers. The OU outcome in that once was basically NEVER in doubt as the Vikings came away with a 14-3 win (UNDER cashed by 19.5 points). With that winner, the VIKINGS are now on a 1-4 O/U run in their last five preseason games with an average of only 31.0 combined points per game. They’ve also gone 2-5 O/U in the last seven seasons in their SECOND preseason game.
With Minnesota already having one game under their belts… and Tampa coming into their FIRST game… that opens up our first pertinent query of the Playbook NFL pre-season database. A ‘Game Two’ versus a ‘Game One’ situation. When we plug in what Minnesota did in last week’s Hall of Fame game, we are clearly shown which direction (Over or Under) to go from an OU perspective. So here’s two queries that each point to the same direction:
(1) NFL teams who WON the Hall of Fame game and also went ‘UNDER’ in that game (Vikings) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U since 2003 in their next game…
(2) NFL pre-season GAME TWO favorites (Vikings) have gone 1-10 O/U since 1999 versus any GAME ONE opponent (Bucs) when the OU line is 36 or more points.
This is one of those rare ‘NFC versus NFL’ exhibition games. There’s only about six of these games scheduled every pre-season. And they tend to be LOW-scoring…
6-14 O/U since 2010 / 2-10 O/U last 3 years: All pre-season NFC Conference home favorites (Vikings) versus any fellow NFC Conference opponent (Bucs).
Sealing the deal for us is a look at any OU tendencies for this particular Day of the Week… combined with the current point spread and OU line.
3-12 O/U last 5 years: All pre-season GAME TWO or greater home favorites of -3 > pts on a SATURDAY (Minnesota)… when the OU line is 39 < points.
Pick Made: Aug 14 2015 10:57AM PST