Analysis:
#955 / 7:15pm ET - 4:15pm PT
MILWAUKEE BREWERS with Nelson @ CINCINNATI REDS with Smith
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
This Best Bet has a LOT going for it. As a regular player (and fanatic) in the DFS world (Daily Fantasy Sports), I can tell you that the Milwaukee Brewer’s OFFENSE is starting to fire on all cylinders these days. I ‘stacked them’ up in multiple DFS Tournaments at DraftKings last night… and had my best results of the season. Just as anticipated, they blew the doors off at Great American Ballpark. The Brew-Crew had 16 hits and came away with a very impressive 12-1 win over the Redlegs. That game went easily Over the Total of 8 runs. And there’s no reason that tonight’s game shouldn’t be just as high scoring. After all, we have a very favorable OVER Umpire working tonight. Both teams are ‘Trending-OVER’ as of late. And we have the luxury of a couple of ‘bottom-of-the-barrel’ starting pitchers squaring off against each other. So get your play in at the current line of 8.5 runs as SOON as possible.
As mentioned in our first paragraph, Milwaukee’s offense is CLICKING as of late, They’re averaging 7.3 runs per game in their last 8 games. They are on a current 4-0-1 O/U run in their last five games. In their last ten game versus right-handed starting pitchers, the Brewers are hitting .350 and averaging 7.8 runs per game on offense.
Meanwhile, the host Reds have also been involved in a lot of high-scoring games as of late. 7-3 O/U in their last ten games (9.5 runs per game) and 4-1 O/U in their last five games (11.2 runs per game). In their last five games versus right-handed starting pitchers, the Redlegs are averaging 5.3 runs per game on offense (4-1 O/U). They are a home UNDERDOG tonight…. and they’ve gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in their last five ‘home dog' roles.
Jimmy Nelson gets the call for the road favorite Brewers. His ERA on the year in his road starts is an underwhelming 5.00. In his most recent outing against this same Cincinnati team. he allowed 12 hits + walks and SEVEN earned runs in only 2.1 innings pitched. The score of that game was 9 to 6.
Youngster Joshua Smith toes the rubber for the home Reds. He’s only had two overall starts on the season. So he’s still on the ripe side. BOTH of those starts went OVER the Total (2-0 O/U) and he didn’t make it past the 5th inning in either of ‘em. His ERA on the year is 5.62. And he has MORE walks (10) than strikeouts (6).
We’ve saved the best for last. Working behind the dish in tonight’s Game Two of this Milwaukee / Cincinnati series will be one of the BEST ‘Over Umpires in the entire league. That would be BILL WELKE. He carries a year-to-date record of 11-4 O/U into this game, with an average of 9.6 runs per game. We were ‘ON’ Welke in his most recent game as well. That was back on Tuesday in Game Two of the Texas Rangers / Baltimore Orioles series. That was also our Best Bet ‘OVER of the MONTH’ in Major League Baseball. The OU line in that game was 8.5 runs (just like tonight’s game). By the time the THIRD inning was over, the score was already tied at 4 to 4. That means that when there 4th inning started, we ALREADY had an automatic winner (final score was 8-6). So we will be back on Bill Welke tonight. And we are very confident that there will be some offensive fireworks going on in this Reds / Brewers game.
Pick Made: Jul 4 2015 7:05AM PST