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908 NYM (-170) Southpoint vs 907 CIN
dime bet
Analysis:I'm backing the NY Mets on Saturday afternoon. Once in a while we will lay a price. When we feel that a big fave is well short of where it should be it's time to jump in. That's the case with this matchup. Matt Harvey gets one more start before the Mets make their second attempt at a six-man rotation. Harvey did not seem to enjoy it the first time around, so we'll jump in here and likely pass the next time he's on the hill. But the Mets' righty has been outstanding since returning from Tommy John surgery. Harvey owns a 1.01 WHIP on the season, including 1.00 at home. That's after posting a 1.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .190 BAA in 18 previous home starts before 2015. New York owns a 27-11 home record. Dig a little deeper and you'll see they have taken care of business when they're supposed to, posting a smoking-hot 19-4 record at home against teams with a losing record (Cincy is under .500). The Reds are stuck in the bottom half of MLB in road batting average and OBP. I also believe Michael Lorenzen's ERA is about to take a bit of a hit. Lorenzen has a hefty WHIP overall, including a big 1.57 WHIP on the road. You don't maintain sub-4.00 ERA's with a WHIP approaching 1.60. Besides the 19-4 mark mentioned above, the Mets are on a 40-12 run as home chalk. Meanwhile, the Reds have won just 13 of their last 57 as a road dog (84-25 home/away combined spots). I believe that explains why we are laying a rare big price. I'm backing the Mets as they look to make it 8-2 in their last 10 against the Reds. New York is my Heavy Hitter on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.Pick Made: Jun 27 2015 2:02AM PST
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