Analysis:1* Take the New York
Mets (#909)
The Brewers are favored here for a couple of reasons The Mets are ice cold, losers of five
straight while scoring one run or less four times during that span. New York has been consistently awful away
from Citi Field, riding a 10-14 road record into Tuesday. Jonathan Niese is New
York’s least popular pitcher in the betting markets; the antithesis of their
highly touted young aces. And Mike Fiers
has the lowest ERA on the Brewers starting staff.
That being said, the Brewers don’t make very good favorites
these days. The season isn’t even
halfway over yet and Milwaukee is 21 games under .500; hopelessly out of
contention. Those struggles have been
magnified at Miller Park where Milwaukee is a truly woeful 11-24 this year. That includes four straight losses and twelve
of their last fifteen, struggling in every aspect of the game – poor starting
pitching, bad bullpen work and dismal levels of offensive production.
The Brewers are hitting just .212 against opposing southpaws
this year; bad news against Jonathan Niese for a lineup that has been held to
two runs or less in six of their last nine overall. And from all indications, Niese is a ‘bet-on’
hurler right now after some early season struggles. He’s thrown three consecutive quality starts,
and he’s pitched well against the Brewers with a 2.51 ERA in his last five
tries against them.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s Mike Fiers is proving to be a poor
fit for Miller Park, a fly ball pitcher in a venue that isn’t friendly to fly
ball pitchers. Fiers has thrown only two
quality starts in seven tries on this field in 2015. Eight of the nine home runs he’s allowed this
year have come in Milwaukee, and his home ERA is nearly two full runs higher
than his road ERA. It’s a short sample
size, but current Mets are hitting .438 against Fiers in their careers. Wrong team favored here! Take
the Mets.
Pick Made: Jun 23 2015 8:03AM PST