Analysis:
8:05pm ET - 5:05pm PT / #509
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
2** Play on: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER plus the points
The ULTIMATE underdog in Pro Basketball is catching points on Friday, and WE want a price of ‘em. That would be the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER. They’ve been the league’s BEST conference underdog over the last five seasons. And they’re taking in an opponent tonight that they have dominated in the past… and a team that’s been reeling as of late. That would be the Memphis Grizzlies, who have already lost the #2 spot in the Western Conference and are stumbling as the regular season is winding down. The host Grizzlies just lost THREE straight games in a row (and by 14 or more points EACH time) to good teams (Spurs / Warriors / Cavaliers). Yes, they just busted their 3-game losing streak. But that was against one of the worst teams in the league in the Sacramento Kings. That win proves nothing. It was back on Monday night in which they were a 10.5 home favorite (won 97 to 83). So the hosts come in with 3 days of rest. The GRIZZLIES have gone 1-8 ATS in the last 3 years and 0-5 ATS in the last 12 months as favorites when playing with THREE days of rest. Also 2-10 ATS when playing on FRIDAYS.
Meanwhile, let’s get back to our SUPER Dawg. The OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER have gone an amazing 17-3-1 ATS in the last five seasons as conference underdogs of MORE than (>) 3 points. Heck, this season ALONE the Thunder have gone 9-1-1 ATS! That includes a perfect 10-0-1 ATS in thee last five years when the Thunder are off a SU loss in their last game (just lost to Dallas 135 to 131 on Wednesday).
Not only is Ok City the ULTIMATE underdog. But we’ll be on ‘em in NUMEROUS profitable ‘play ON’ situations. For example, since February... the THUNDER have gone 10-2 ATS when playing on ONE day of rest. That includes a perfect 7-0 ATS when the OU Line is < 212 points. Also, the THUNDER have gone 9-1 ATS this season versus > .600 conference opponents when the OU line is 208 or less points. And finally, The Thunder have gone 8-1 ATS since last season when playing off a SU home favorite loss in their last game.
As mentioned above, the Thunder just lost a home SHOOTOUT against the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. Final score in that home loss was 135 to 131… 7-1-1 ATS since 2005 / 5-0 ATS since 2008: All non-division road underdogs playing off a SU home loss in which they scored AND allowed 130 or more points (THUNDER).
Also as mentioned above, the host Grizzlies come into tonight’s game with THREE full days of rest… while the Thunder come in with ONE day of rest. Our database tells us to ‘fade’ these well-rested teams when they won in their last game… 3-15-2 ATS this season: All NBA teams in a ‘3/1’ REST situation (Grizzlies) and playing off a SU win. These games have gone an almost-PERFECT 1-13 ATS in NON-division play.
Pick Made: Apr 3 2015 8:46AM PST