Analysis:
4:35pm ET - 1:35pm PT / #708
Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
3*** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL
There is no reason to buck what has been an extremely LOW-scoring series between these two teams over the last few seasons. This season’s results ALONE dictate a strong bump into 4* Best Bet status. The Over / Under line of 200 to 201 points is about 10 points TOO high. The CAVS played the SIXERS on January 5th, and the OU line was 192 points. Final score: 95 to 92 (UNDER hit by 5 points). Then, they played each other on February 2nd and the OU line was 195.5 points. Final score was 97 to 84 (UNDER hit by 14.5 points). EACH of the last four meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER the TOTAL (0-4 O/U). Average combined points in those games: 192.8. Over the last three seasons, there last TEN meetings have gone 1-9 O/U. The ONLY game that went ‘Over the Total’ was an OVERTIME game! These two teams are currently tied as the second-BEST ‘Under’ teams in the entire league for the season… with identical 29-44 O/U record. The only team ahead of them is the Utah Jazz (28-44-1). Cleveland has been the league’s BEST ‘Under’ home team on the year (13-22 O/U). And Philly has been the league’s 4th BEST ‘Under’ road team on the year.
Database query #1:
At last look, Cleveland was laying a whopping -16 to -17 points in this game. Conference favorites of this high a line have been SUPER ‘Under’ plays in the last few years… 1-9 O/U last two seasons: All non-division CONFERENCE home favorites of -16 or more points (Cavaliers) when the OU line is < 225 points.
Database query #2:
Cleveland comes in with a 47-27 SU record on the year (.635)… while Philadelphia comes in with a 18-55 SU record (.246).
2-15 O/U since February 1st: All SAME-CONFERENCE > .600 teams (Cavs) versus any < .400 opponent (Sixers)… when the OU line falls in the range of > 192 pts and < 203 pts.
Database query #3:
The Cavaliers return home off a 3-game road trip. That first gam home has been a LOW-scoring one so far in this current month of March… 1-9 O/U since March 1st: All home favorites of > 3 points (Cavs) playing off 3 or more road games in a row.
Database query #4:
Cleveland wrapped up their 3-game road trip with a surprising loss (and BEAT-DOWN) to the Brooklyn Nets. They were road favs of -8.5 in that game and lost outright by 8 points… 0-11 O/U since 1997: All home favorites off a SU road loss of 8 > pts in a game in which they were a FAV of -8 > pts (Cavs) when the OU line falls in the range of 190 to 205 points.
Database query #5:
Up next for the visiting Sixers is a home game the very next day (tomorrow) versus the Los Angeles Lakers… 2-15-1 O/U since 2003: All SUNDAY conference DOUBLE-DIGIT (+10 > pts) road underdogs who have a game then NEXT day (Sixers)… when the OU line falls in the range of > 190 pts and < 202 pts.
Database query #6 and #7:
Philadelphia is playing off a BEAT-DOWN of their own. They just lost at home to the LA Clippers by a score of 119 to 98 on Friday. That game also went Over the Total… 1-16 O/U last two seasons: All underdogs off a SU home loss of 20 > pts that ALSO went Over the Total (Sixers)… when the OU line falls in the range of > 192 pts and < 210 pts.
0-7 O/U since January of THIS season: All underdogs of 5 > pts off a SU home loss of 20 > pts (Sixers).
Pick Made: Mar 29 2015 8:12AM PST