Analysis:1* Take Atlanta – Miami Under
(#861-862)
Besides the obvious – Hawks All Star point guard Jeff Teague
sitting out tonight, with Miami’s leading scorer and assist man Dwayne Wade
also expected to miss the contest – there are two other key reasons to bet this
game Under.
First, Atlanta just changed up their defense. Atlanta has really been through the ringer,
schedule wise, since the All Star Break and head coach Mike Budenholzer hadn’t
been able to install anything new due to a lack of practice time. That changed this past week when the Hawks
finally had a couple of days off in a row, and Budenholzer (man, this guy needs
a nickname!) went to work on the team’s defensive schemes. The first result was extremely positive. After allowing 31 Orlando points in the first
quarter on Wednesday, they stifled the Magic completely thereafter, giving up
only 52 points the rest of the way. With the Hawks primary focus on the
defensive end of the court right now, the algorhythm based totals power rating
numbers that set these totals are likely to be in the wrong range for at least
the next few contets.
Secondly, the Heat have done one thing consistently in this
road underdog role under Eric Spoelstra this year – they’ve slowed the pace to
a crawl. Spoelstra is no rookie head
coach, and he fully understands that his squad this year simply doesn’t have
the personnel to run, especially when stepping up in class. That’s a big part of the reason why Miami is
19-8 to the Under as a road dog this season, an Under-the-Radar angle worth
backing again here. It’s surely worth
noting that the Heat are even more likely to slow it down on their fourth game
in six nights AND that neither Miami nor their opponent has topped 93 points in
each of the first three games of their current road trip; a trip that is 3-0 to
the Under thusfar…. Take the Under.
Pick Made: Mar 27 2015 8:17AM PST