Analysis:
8:05pm ET - 5:05pm PT / #802
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
2** Play on: MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Get your play in ASAP. We got ours in when the game opened last night with Milwaukee a 1-point home favorite. Now on game day, the line is starting to rise significantly. At last look, the host Bucks were already up to -2.5 points. SO again, get your play in ASAP on the ‘revenging’ Bucks, who have lost the two most recent meetings versus the Pacers… in OT earlier this month and by three points in January. In this Central Division, HOME teams playing with same-season DOUBLE Revenge (like MILWAUKEE) have already gone 6-1 ATS for the year. In addition to the extra motivation of division Revenge, the Bucks can really put a crimp into Indiana’s playoff picture when they win tonight. And the can secure their OWN #6 spot in the Eastern Conference to boot. The Pacers find themselves hanging very precariously to a playoff spot. At this time, they are TIED with Boston for the LAST playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, And breathing down the necks of BOTH the Pacers and the Celtics are Brooklyn and Charlotte… who are both a HALF game behind for that last playoff spot. So it looks like a four-horse race for spot #8.
Milwaukee has been a GREAT team to 'play ON’ on this particular Day of the Week. On THURSDAYS, the Bucks have gone 8-1 ATS in the last 12 months. That includes a perfect 5-0 ATS in same-Conference play.
Indiana just played last night. Since January, they’ve gone 1-4 ATS when playing with NO REST. And for the entire season, the Pacers have gone a perfect 0-5 ATS as road underdogs with NO rest when playing off a SU win (like last night).
Speaking of no rest, let’s head to the database. On these prime-time THURSDAY games, we always want to FADE teams who played the previous night and won their game… 1-13 ATS last 3 years: All THURSDAY road underdogs of12 < points playing with NO REST (Pacers)… and off a SU and ATS win.
This has also been a great Day of the Week to ride DIVISION teams who are playing the role of host (like the Bucks) and are also playing with Revenge motivation 5-0 ATS since 2002: All THURSDAY division home favorites playing with DOBLE-Revenge (MILWAUKEE) when both teams are off a SU win in their last game.
So Milwaukee just snapped a 6-game losing streak with a last second come-from-behind home underdog win over the Miami Heat on Tuesday… 8-1-1 ATS since 1991 / 5-0 ATS last 7 years: All Division home favorites of -4 or less points off a SU home UNDERDOG win that snapped a 5 or more game losing streak (BUCKS).
Final score of that last-second Tuesday win for Milwaukee was 89 to 88… 6-0 ATS since 2008: All DIVISION home teams off a SU home underdog ONE-point win (MILWAUKEE).
Indiana comes into tonight’s game on a pretty hot OVER run (3-0 O/U last three) in which they scored and allowed 100 or more points in all three games… 1-8 ATS since December: All road underdogs of 7 < points off a SU win (Pacers) who also allowed 100 > points in EACH of their last three games.
Pick Made: Mar 26 2015 9:19AM PST