Analysis:This number is smaller than I thought it would be - and not waiting. It's smaller because Virginia is known for their defense - and yes, they play good defense. But, Belmont is one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation - and they'll run regardless of what UVA does (plays slow). They're simply going to live or die by what they do. And what they don't do, which is play defense. But, you're looking at an UVA team that gave up 60 or so to Syracuse, L'ville, and V-tech, all teams that can't score. They don't play teams like Belmont very often - and in fact played Davidson, probably the next best thing, back in the end of December, at home. The final: 83-72. On the flip side, I don't see how Belmont can stop UVA from getting more than their fare share here. They're (Virginia) not going to want a close game late and risk having Belmont make a few quick shots, so I suspect they speed things up A LITTLE (which is all it will take) early, if for no other reason than the fact the their looks will be there. Simply contrasting styles and not at home where UVA would probably dictate the pace more.
My potential exotic play: ML parlay L'ville to Eastern Kentucky. WKY won't (shouldn't) lose at home, and as good as Irvine is (I do like them) I don't think Pitino loses the game. A really cool thing would be to tease Irvine UP on TOP of a ML parlay. Maybe teased to Valpo because that should be a low scoring game.
The obvious money was on UGA over Michigan State, FWIW. I chose not to start following because as I have said countless times, you have to follow all of it or none of it, and personally, I am not having another drama day today. Yet. I like San Diego State (coaching, defense, and SJU isn't a good rebounding team) but won't lay points in what should be a game under 120. ML'd or nothing. The more I look the more I like Valpo, Possibly a small ML play there. Too experienced for the Terps to just roll, IMO. Now, as if 12:50PM, you know what I do, perhaps even more.
4:15PM EST-Due to the LONG times in the 1H when neither team could score (UVA wants a super slow pace and may try to slow it down more) I do think the under 2H is a play. At 139 for the game (the actual 1H score + the 2H total) we have a pretty large middle there. Just sayin' that if it were "cool" to enter HT plays into the system I would enter that one for sure. CANNOT lose them both and a 15 point middle to WIN them both - we can't ask for better than that.
Pick Made: Mar 16 2015 11:25AM PST