Analysis:
#878 / 6:05pm ET - 3:05pm PT
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Hornets
2** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL
If you wanna talk a LOW-scoring series history, we’re ON IT on Sunday. These two teams played each other just two weeks ago in Denver. The OU line was 197.5 points. Final score was New Orleans 99 / Denver 92 (UNDER won by -6.5 points). In the earlier meeting (played Jan. 28 in there Big Easy), the OU line was 203.0. Final score was Denver 93 / New Orleans 85 (UNDER won by -25 points). This NUGGETS / PELICANS series has gone 7-17 O/U in the last 24 meetings. In the last 14 played IN New Orleans, the results have been an almost perfect 2-12 O/U. One of those OVERS did so only because of overtime.
We are certainly aware that both teams have gone OVER in each of their last two games. But our database tells us that there is value on the UNDER for home favorites in this situation… Database query #1: 0-6 O/U since Christmas: All Conference home favorites of > 2 pts and < 11 pts (Pelicans) when BOTH teams went ‘Over the Total’ in EACH of their last two games (Pelicans and Nuggets).
New Orleans last played on Tuesday night. That means they come into this game on EXTENDED rest (4 days). Meanwhile, Denver just played on Friday night (1 day of rest). Database query #2: 0-4 O/U last 12 months: All NBA home teams in a ‘4/1’ REST situation (Pelicans).
Not only are both teams on a multiple game OVER streak. But both teams are on a multiple game WINNING streak. They’ve both gone 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games… Database query #3: 2-12 O/U this season: All NBA home favorites when BOTH teams (Pelicans and Nuggets) have gone 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games… when the OU line is > 199 points. Since January, these game have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U.
On this particular Day of the Week, extra rest leads to LOW-scoring outcomes… Database query #4: 0-7 O/U last 12 months: All SUNDAY conference teams playing with 3 or MORE days of REST (New Orleans).
New Orleans just finished a short 2-game Eastern Conference road trip in which they defeated the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets by 11 points and 20 points respectively (New Orleans was our 3*** DOG Winner in that Tuesday game vs the Nets)… Database query #5: 1-9-1 O/U since December: All NBA home teams off back-to-back ROAD wins of 10 or more points EACH (Pelicans).
Don’t be afraid of each team’s improved offense as of late. That just increases the value of our UNDER. New Orleans has scored 111 and 114 points in their last two games. Denver has scored 114 and 15 points in their last two games… Database query #6: 1-7 O/U last 5 years / 0-4 O/U last 2 years: All home favorites of > 5 points when BOTH teams (Pelicans + Nuggets) scored 110 > points in EACH of their last two games… when the OU Line is > 199 points.
Denver starts a multiple-game road trip today. And fresh off 3 straight HOME wins in a row… Database query #7: 2-10 O/U this season / 0-5 O/U since January: All road teams playing off 3 straight home WINS in a row (Denver)… when the OU line is > 202 points.
Pick Made: Mar 15 2015 8:42AM PST