Analysis:1* Take Milwaukee (#926)
This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions
right now. Toronto can’t do anything
right. They’ve dropped two straight and
six of their last seven on this road trip, each and every one of those losses
coming by multiple runs. They’re 4-12
here in August, struggling behind a slumping lineup and an overworked bullpen
that now ranks #26 out of 30 MLB teams in ERA.
Milwaukee is trending in the opposite direction. The first place Brewers have won five straight
and nine of their last twelve. Their
pitching has been stellar, allowing three runs or less ten times in those
twelve games; never more than five runs allowed in any contest. And the Brewers hot hitting lineup ranks #2
in the NL in runs scored, pounding out six runs or more four times in their
last five ballgames.
Give those factors, why is this line so cheap? Simple – the markets respect RA Dickey more
than they respect Jimmy Nelson. Nelson was the Brewers #1 minor league prospect
coming into the season, with a tough sinker, a 94 mph fastball and a nasty
slider in his repertoire. He’s thrown
five consecutive quality starts, needing less than 90 pitches to get through 6+
innings on four separate occasions during that span. In his eight starts this year, the only times
Milwaukee has lost is when they’ve been held to two runs or less.
I’m not
convinced that RA Dickey and the Blue Jays bullpen behind him can shut down the
Brewers hot lineup today. Brewers sluggers
Carlos Gomez, Ricky Weeks, Jonathan Lucroy and Gerrardo Parra have hit a
combined .533 against Dickey in their respective careers. And Dickey has been struggling with his
command of late, walking four batters in each of his last two outings. Toronto is just 3-9 in Dickey’s last dozen
starts, an under-the-radar trend worth riding again in early start action
today. Take the Brewers.
Pick Made: Aug 20 2014 8:16AM PST