Analysis:1* Take San Diego (#909)
This game is, quite simply, being priced in the wrong
range. San Diego might be five games
under .500 for the full season, but the Padres have won five straight and 11 of
their last 14, playing good baseball right now.
They’ve hit better away from home all year long, with a lineup that’s
thrilled to take at-bats anywhere except Petco Field. As a team, the Padres have hit .276 and
averaged 4.6 runs per game during this 14 game stretch, in sharp contrast to
their season long .225 batting average and 3.3 runs per game average. Dating back to late June, the Padres are
23-15 in their last 38 contests, cashing more than a dozen underdog tickets
during that span, a consistently undervalued commodity.
Padres starter Eric Stultz is being priced in the wrong
range as well. It’s been a tough year
for the lefty, tied for the major league lead with 13 losses. But Stultz has been dominant in each of his
last two starts, allowing just a single earned run during that span while
notching his first road win of the year at Pittsburgh in his last trip to the
hill. Facing the light hitting Cardinals
(ranked #29 out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored this year, a stat that’s stayed
consistent since before the All Star Break), Stultz is in prime position to
deliver his third straight quality outing.
Behind him, the Padres bullpen has the best bullpen ERA in the majors,
consistently closing the door.
That stands in sharp contrast to the Cardinals bullpen that’s
ranked #19 in the majors in ERA and got into trouble again last night. John Lackey got bombed in Baltimore in his
last start; the seventh time this season he’s allowed five runs or more. Lackey is simply not trustable in this price
range against a Padres team that has been every bit as good as St Louis (if not
better) for at least the last six weeks!
Take the Padres.
Pick Made: Aug 14 2014 8:52AM PST