Analysis:1* Take New England (#253).
Like many Super Bowl winning coaches, Bill Belichick cares
about wins in August, and that starts right here in Week 1 of the
preseason. The results don’t lie. The Pats went 3-1 SU and ATS last year, including
a 31-22 Week 1 win at Philly. In 2012,
they won their preseason opener against the Saints. In 2011, the Pats beat the Jags 47-12 in Week
1. In 2010, the Pats notched a win and cover in Week 1 against the Saints. In
2009, New England won their preseason opener SU as underdogs at Philly. Add it up and we’re looking at an under-the-radar
5-0 SU Week 1 preseason run. Sure, the Pats
are only 4-1 ATS in those five games, but that irrelevant here, because New
England is still an underdog for Thursday’s game as I write this, which means a
SU win correlates directly with a pointspread cover.
The betting markets tend to blindly support rookie head
coaches in their first preseason home game; one of the primary reasons Washington
is favored here. There’s a very long
term angle to support these first year, first time coaches in home games, but
frankly, it hasn’t produced a ‘blindly betting it’ profit over the last five
years. Jay Gruden is not in any high
pressure situation as he debuts in DC.
And the team around him is spotty at best, particularly on the defensive
side of the ball.
The Redskins aren’t expected
to play their starters more than 8-10 plays.
They won’t have their starting receivers on the field for RG3 to work
with at all. Washington has a new
offense that everybody is still learning, and Gruden’s expectations are low
saying he’s going to keep things simple.
“We’re just trying to find guys who
can play and trying to put them in a situation where they can play football and
succeed. The biggest thing is: When the lights come on, how do you perform when
the pressure is on? People will be watching.”
The Patriots offense completely
destroyed the Redskins defense in joint practices earlier this week. Tom Brady and the first string offense played
16 plays in their preseason opener last year, leading the team on a pair of 80
yard TD drives. Behind Brady is the
capable Ryan Mallett, and while third stringer Jimmy Garoppolo is still very
much a work in progress, he’s not that far behind Redskins #3 QB Colt McCoy, a
guy who hasn’t enjoyed any NFL success, even in August. Wrong team favored here! Take the
Patriots.
Pick Made: Aug 6 2014 11:09AM PST