Analysis:916 Kansas City at Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Rays are rolling right now after taking three out of four from the Tigers to wrap up a spectacular 9-2 road trip. They'll welcome the Kansas City Royals, who have dropped 10 of their last 16 since a nine-game win streak in early June. James Shields and Jake Odorizzi will each face off against their former team in this one.
For Shields, things have not gone well and the strain of seven straight 200+ inning seasons may be starting to take its toll. Since the start of May, Shields has allowed 47 runs, 42 earned, in 76.1 innings of work. That's a 4.95 ERA. The velocity is still there, but the command isn't, as Shields is allowing the highest percentage of contact this season in his career. Since May 1, hitters have posted a .317/.357/.514/.871 slash line against Shields, a sign that he's throwing far too many hittable pitches. He's allowed 11 home runs in that span.
On the other side, Jake Odorizzi might be starting to find his comfort zone at the Major League level. In his last five starts, Odorizzi has a 2.05 ERA, an 8.8 K/9, and an opponent slash line of .186/.252/.310. The bad start and some batted ball bad luck skewed his numbers, but his sabermetric line of a 3.41 FIP, a 3.63 xFIP, and a 3.45 SIERA suggest that this recent run is far from a mirage.
In that 11-game road trip to Baltimore, New York, and Detroit, the Rays averaged better than five runs per game and won close games and blowouts. With the wide open AL East Division, the Rays have to believe that they've got a shot despite the terrible start and they're playing like a team that knows it. The Royals have a lot of guys struggling to hit right now and the ace of their very mediocre rotation has struggled a lot over the last two months. The Rays are hot and coming home for a six-game homestand before the All-Star Break should give them an extra push to keep this run going.
PLAY: TAMPA BAY
Pick Made: Jul 7 2014 5:56AM PST