Analysis:Well, it's Thursday and since totals didn't work well yesterday, sides have been marginal at best lately, we'll play home team RL's tonight. Grienke's worst stats away from LA over the years have been in Coors Field. And Arenado should be activated for the Rockies tonight, which is a huge lift. Since he went down on May 23 the Rockies are about 9-26 (or something like that), and through all that they are still a game over .500 at home. Hanley Ramirez is downgraded to doubtful for the Dodgers. Back to Zack, which is my big key here. Almost ALL the parks he's had trouble in, even going back to KC, were the small ones. Even on the road, period, this season his WHIP is a pedestrian 1.31 and the Dodgers are a mere 4-5 in his starts away from Dodger Stadium. Two weeks ago at home he only beat the Rockies and Chacin 4-2. They have simply been his kryptonite. I do realize we're dealing with Franklin Morales here, but the Rockies are 3-1 in his home starts, and two of those wins were over the Giants and Bumgarner. No, I really don't like the travel for Colorado or their bullpen, but let's not forget the Dodgers pen hasn't been that stellar and they are barely in first place, travel to the altitude, and then on to Detroit after having dropped the last two at home to the Indians. Just a bad spot for them here, and their pen on the road (away from bigger parks, again) just hasn't bee lights-out by any means. I'll take the home team at this price with the last at bat most every time, and honestly it's a similar situation with the Twins, since Texiera is dinged a little and the Yankees leave home having lost five straight to division rivals. Tanaka lost his last two games, but perhaps more telling was the sheer number of flyball outs (13 and 17) and the fact that he also threw 116 pitches against Boston. That's not an all-time high, but it IS getting near the AS break so it almost does appear he's wearing a bit. I do know there's no Mauer, but the Twins have seen him (Mauer was 0-4) and we've got Hughes in the big park against his former team. Too much to ignore, and thoughts on the rest of what's left in a bit.
If I was going to add another play it would be Texas at the moment. Leaned that way last night and the line is moving that way. Texas much better against LHP but really have to wonder where their heads' are at after blowing another lead last night.
I'd have to lean Fish, but with Hand coming back from a layoff and Kendrick pitching, I lean over more than I like a side. Neither team has much of a bullpen right now.
I can't lay -155 with Worley, as well as the Pirates have been playing. They're probably winners, but I'd have to take the RL one way or the other.
With the total coming down in the Tigers game and V-Mart likely OUT, I could easily see taking the Rays RL here.
I'm still not fading Houston. I do like Oberholtzer. He keeps the ball down, and LAA can have trouble at times w/LHP. I do like the under a bit, and the Astros RL.
Pick Made: Jul 3 2014 8:12AM PST