Analysis:
963 Oakland at Detroit
Before we declare Justin Verlander fixed, let's remember that his last two starts have come against the Astros and the Indians. With that settled, we look ahead to Wednesday's matinee between the A's and Tigers. The A's will counter with Jesse Chavez, who has the kind of profile that could shut down the Tigers. Most of the key contributors on the Tigers are right-handed and Chavez has held righties to a .195/.242/.336 slash and a .256 wOBA, which is outstanding. The Tigers are now 17-8 against left-handed starters after beating Scott Kazmir and Brad Mills the last two days, but they are just 29-26 against righties.
Chavez's ERA away from home is a run higher, but at 3,38, it's still a very respectable number. Chavez pounds the strikeout and locates down and away to righties with a lot of success. The A's are going to be looking to avoid a sweep and Chavez may be the best guy in their rotation to do that given the matchup.
Verlander has really struggled with command this season and opposing hitters slugged .433 against him in May and .488 in June. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and that's never good news going up against a very patient A's lineup capable of waiting out mistakes. And Verlander has certainly made mistakes this season.
With men on base, Verlander has allowed a .300/.369/.443 slash and the A's will get men on base because they almost always do. When you see Verlander as a rather small favorite at home against a pitcher that isn't a big name, there's something to be said for that line and we see it too. Despite the last two starts, Verlander can't be trusted.
PLAY: OAKLAND
Pick Made: Jul 2 2014 4:43AM PST