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Wed, 06/18/14 - 9:40 PM Stephen Nover | MLB Total
Free pick 960 ARI / 959 MIL Over 9 Hilton
Analysis: I'm not fond of either starting pitcher, Matt Garza, nor lefty Wade Miley. Arizona has one of the worst bullpens in the National League and Milwaukee's relief crew has regressed. But let's get back to the starting pitchers. Garza is the weakest of Milwaukee's starting pitchers. He's become more a of a journeyman, innings-eater than star. Garza has allowed three or more earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. His ERA on the road this year is 6.21. I like Miley even less especially going against the right-handed dominated Brewers lineup that expects to have Carlos Gomez back today. Miley has yielded three or more earned runs in eight of his last 10 starts. The Brewers have an MLB-best .750 winning percentage against lefties. Miley has been at his worst at hitter-friendly Chase Field going 1-5 with a 5.69 ERA. His only quality starts at home have been against soft-hitting San Diego and Atlanta. He's surrendered six homers in his last three starts. Milwaukee ranks third in the NL with 74 home runs. Miley has a 5.70 career ERA in four starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee has been swinging hot bats scoring at least four runs in 18 of its last 22 games, including the past six. The over is 16-5-1 during this span in Brewer games.
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