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Scott Spreitzer | today's note
Free Pick: Kentucky at Missouri
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Sun, 02/24/13 - 6:05 PM Andre Gomes | NBA Total
Free pick 810 MIA / 809 CLE Over 204.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
NBA - 809 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 810 Miami Heat

Projected Line: 209 points

Miami easily defeated the Sixers last night on the road with another dominant offensive game. An offensive rating of 136 is really impressive, especially if we have in account that their starters didn't play that much: Lebron James and Dwayne Wade played 32 minutes, while Chris Bosh played just 25 minutes. I have no doubts that the Cavaliers's defense has no shot in handling the Heat's offense today. We are talking about a team that has averaged a defensive rating of 113 over their last 10 games, while they are #30 in the league in defending isolation plays, #23 in pick and roll ball handler plays, #30 in post up plays and #24 in transition plays! Miami is not only #1 in the league in overall offense, but they are also #1, #3, #1 and #2 in these four areas respectively! Cleveland's interior defense is also awful in protecting the rim. They are the 3rd worst rim defense in the league and we saw that last night against a shorthanded Magic team, where the Cavaliers allowed 48.1% FG and 34-65 (52%) in 2pts shots and 52 points in the paint!

The potential problem for Miami on this game is related to their bad spot for this contest. They will be playing their fourth game in five days, however they just pounded Philadelphia last night and their starters played a low number of minutes, with 13 different players being on the court for the Heat last night. The same happens with the Cavaliers on today's game. This is a back to back game, but they dominated the Magic last night, so they were able to rest their starters for today's game. Kyrie Irving played only 30 minutes and he was the Cavaliers player that was more time on the court last night! Cleveland's offense has clearly improved on their last 10 games, especially due to the trade they have made with Memphis, where they got Marreese Speights and Wayne Ellington, who have been great on offense coming off the bench. The Cavaliers's second unit is pretty decent on offense with a fast pace mindset and this was shown yesterday where Marreese Speights, C.J. Miles and Wayne Ellington all scored more than 15 points while having nice shooting numbers as well.

But of course, Kyrie Irving is Cleveland's superstar and he will be a hard tough opponent for Mario Chalmers to defend tonight. Eventually Lebron James will check Irving during the game, but even Lebron should struggle in defending Irving. Anyway, I believe Miami will score so easily today that they won't need a big defensive effort for them to beat the Cavaliers on this game. This will turn this game into another very high scoring game involving the Heat and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Over 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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