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Stephen Nover | today's note
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sleepyj | today's note
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Free Pick: Tampa Bay at Los Angeles
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JR ODonnell | today's note
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Sun, 12/29/13 - 1:00 PM Stephen Nover | NFL Side
Free pick 308 PIT -7.0 (-110) William Hill vs 307 CLE
Analysis:
The price is reasonable enough to get behind Pittsburgh, which has playoff motivation, historical pride and has been playing far better than Cleveland.

The Steelers have covered six of their last seven. They have won five of their last seven games with each victory coming by seven or more points. This includes a 27-11 win at Cleveland five weeks ago.

The Browns never recovered from losing sparkplug quarterback Brian Hoyer in Week 5. They are 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS since then. Even with Josh Gordon emerging as an elite wide receiver, the Browns' offense is way below average because of inferior quarterbacks and a ground game that ranks 27th and has scored only one rushing touchdown on the road all season.

Emerging tight end Jordan Cameron isn't likely to play either as he recovers from a concussion that kept him out of last week's loss against the Jets. The Browns also could be missing cornerback Joe Haden, who has a hip pointer.

Cleveland's defense was underrated during the first half of the season, but it has worn down. The Browns have surrendered an average of 31.5 points during their last six games.

Pittsburgh's offense is coming on. Le'Veon Bell keeps getting better and better. The Steelers' offensive line has come together to allow just six sacks in the last six games. Ben Roethlisberger, one of the great cold weather quarterbacks, has taken advantage throwing for 19 touchdowns with five interceptions in his last eight games. Big Ben ranks in the top seven in passing yards and touchdowns. Only seven starting quarterbacks have a higher quarterback rating than Roethlisberger.

The Steelers have absolutely dominated the Browns during the Roethlisberger era winning 16 of 17 times. Pittsburgh's only loss during this span came last season when Charlie Batch was forced to be its quarterback due to an injury to Roethlisberger. Batch was picked off three times.

Pittsburgh has defeated Cleveland the past 13 times at home. The Browns have averaged only 9.4 points per game during their last 11 meetings versus the Steelers.

Editor's note: Vegas pro Stephen Nover cashed 67 percent last season in the NFL and is trying to beat the NFL for the 19th time in the last 20 years. Stephen has his first Triple Star NFL sides play of this month going Sunday in addition to this free offering. It's his strongest December play.
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