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Thu, 04/20/17 - 8:10 PM Stephen Nover | NBA Total
double-dime bet 712 MIL / 711 TOR Under 196.5 Westgate
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
There were only 180 points scored in Game 1 of this series won by the Bucks, 97-83. But there were 206 points scored in Game 2, won by the Raptors, 106-100.

So, what to make of this matchup with the teams going to Milwaukee now for Game 3? 

I see the final score looking far more like Game 1 so I'm on the Under. 

The Bucks have averaged just 91.7 points during their last seven games. That would rank last a good six points away from the next lowest-scoring team if computed during the entire season. The Raptors are givng up just 90.7 points during their last seven road games. The under has cashed in 16 of Toronto's past 21 road games. 

The Raptors are an underrated defensive team after trading for Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. A key is the Raptors found a way to slow down superstar Giannis Anteokounmpo. They held him to 9-of-24 shooting from the floor in Game 2. 

Toronto and Milwaukee combined to make 25 of 52 3-point shots in Game 2 for an amazing 48 percent from beyond the arc. Toronto made 36.3 percent of its 3-pointers during the regular season while the Bucks converted 37 percent of their 3-point shots.  

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bucks have a bad offensive game due to nerves and the pressure of playing their first playoff game at home. Bucks coach Jason Kidd has been stressing defense. If you discount a meaningless regular season road finale against the Celtics in which their best players sat out, the Bucks are surrendering only 87.5 points in their last four games. The under is 16-4-1 the past 21 times an oponent has scored triple digits on the Bucks in the previous game.

Kidd is showing his commitment to defense by giving more minutes to Matthew Dellavedova and Thon Maker at the expense of Tony Snell and Greg Monroe. Dellavedova has the worst shooting percentage of any of the regular rotation players for Milwaukee during the playoffs while Maker is strictly a defensive type player with limited offensive skills.

The two teams have a strong under bias, too, having gone below the total in nine of their last 12 meetings. 



Pick Made: Apr 20 2017 3:17AM PST
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