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Tue, 04/18/17 - 7:10 PM Andy Iskoe | NBA Total
triple-dime bet 526 TOR / 525 MIL Over 193.5 Greek
Results: W, $300
Analysis: The Total in Game 1 opened 201.5 and, as it turned out, was correctly bet down to close at 197.5.  Milwaukee won that opening game 97-83 but not because of great defense but rather than very poor shooting, especially by Toronto and especially from 3 point range.  The Buck were a reasonable 39% in shooting treys (9 of 23) but the Raptors were an atrocious 5 for 23, 22% and shot just 36% for the game overall (27 of 75) including several missed easy buckets.  The Total opened and remains right around 193.5 and hat adjustment may be too much of an overreaction.  Toronto has not been in a game with a Total lower than 195 all season and only 10 of their 83 games has had a closing Total of Under 200.  Milwaukee has had just 11 games with closing Totals lines of Under 200.  With Toronto needing to win to avoid an 0-2 deficit heading to Milwaukee I expect Toronto to both shoot much better than they did on Saturday and also play their more comfortable up tempo style.  My models project this Total in the 203 to 207 range which, all things considered, provides a nice window of safety to play the OVER.



Pick Made: Apr 18 2017 1:48PM PST
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