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Sat, 04/15/17 - 3:00 PM Andy Iskoe | NBA Total
triple-dime bet 502 CLE / 501 IND Over 207.5 Pinnacle
Results: W, $300
Analysis: Based on most of my algorithms Indiana and Cleveland are the two weakest teams defensively of the 8 Eastern Conference Playoff teams.  Whether the Cavs can reverse their negative momentum of the past month and a half -- marked by horrible defense -- remains to be seen but until they can show there are not internal issues that have affected their recent play we must rely on what we have seen on the court and what the numbers suggest.  Indiana allowed 109.0 points per game on the road during the regular season.  These teams met 4 times and the first meeting produced just 196 total points.  But that game was played in mid-November.  The teams did not meet again for two and a half months and in that next meeting, on February 8, the teams combined for 248 total points in the Cavs' 132-117 win.  Their next meeting a week later produced 217 total points in Cleveland's 113-104 win.  Their most recent meeting was on April 2 and the game went double overtime with Cleveland winning 135-130 -- but the game was tied at 104 at the end of regulation (total of 208 points scored).  Playoffs usually result in lower scoring in general but not all teams and games follow that profile.  The Totals line has been been adjusted from their regular season meetings.  That November meeting, that produced 196 total points, did have a Total of 208 1/2.  But the three meetings between February and April had Totals ranging between 214 and 219 so we are seeing a considerable adjustment which provides a nice window for the game to go OVER that Total that is supported by many of the factors discussed and alluded to above.

Pick Made: Apr 15 2017 10:07AM PST
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