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Sun, 03/19/17 - 7:10 PM Stephen Nover | CBB Total
triple-dime bet 730 Oregon / 729 Rhode Island Under 140.5 Westgate
Results: L, -$330
Analysis:
First off the numbers are there for both teams. Rhode Island ranks 33rd defensively giving up 65.1 points a game. The Rams rank No. 2 in blocked shots and No. 3 in defending against 3-pointers. They are 26th in defensive field goal percentage. They also won't have to worry about Chris Boucher, the Ducks' third-leading scorer out with a torn ACL. 

Oregon also surrenders just 65 points per game. The Ducks led the nation in blocked shots while ranking 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in 3-point defense. 

Numbers are numbers. They also have to fit the matchup for them to work. That's the case here. 

Rhode Island isn't skilled enough offensively to take the attack to Oregon. The Rams are merely an average offensive team ranking 109th in 2-point shots, 239th in 3-pointers and 287th in free throw percentage. Oregon is too strong defensively to give the Rams any crack at the basket via fastbreak, or by not taking care of the basketball. So the Rams are going to have to create their own openings and good shots. That's not their strength. They also have a short bench. So expect the Rams to be very methodical here taking their time in setting up their shots. 

What the Rams do is play with all-out effort. They are well-coached under Danny Hurley with a fundamentally sound defense and underrated size. Boucher is a major loss for Oregon. He was the Ducks' third-leading scorer, No. 2 rebounder and top shot blocker. However, his replacement, Kavell Bigby-Williams, is 6-foot-11 and a good shot-blocker and rebounder. So the Ducks' loss is more on offense than defense. Another plus for the under. 

(Editor's note: For purchasing Stephen Nover's Triple Star NCAA Tournament Total of the Year you are eligible to take $25 off his March Madness All-Access package. Just email Tom@prgame.com to take advantage of this rebate and he will set you up.) 





Pick Made: Mar 19 2017 12:32AM PST
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