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Sat, 03/18/17 - 8:20 PM Dave Essler | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet 531 St. Mary's (Cal.) 6.0 (-120) Sportsbook.ag vs 532 Arizona
Results: L, -$360
Analysis:
There may be a reasonable middle shot if anyone wants to try it - don't get greedy or panic. IF SMC is up a few (preferably 5 or more) there's a very decent sized window for trying that. As I was just explaining to the President of Australia, it's not about how a team is performing in these instances, it's math. If SMC is up the 2H line will be based on the game line and be something along the lines of Arizona + whatever they're behind +1 or +1.5 - so an option. That can change in a heartbeat between now and the last 3:43.

Like I said, a lot can change - the meltdown hurt on several levels. One, the SMC for the game, and two, any chance of a decent 2H bet, which just disappeared. The over 73 is a better bet - if AZ starts scoring, SMC will have to speed things up, foul-fest late. Tough ending there for us.

I'll put this out now at what is/was my target # last night, +6. Bovada has it without buying. Southpoint, Sportsbook, and Cantor all have +5.5 to buy the hook. To be honest, I am/was fine with +5 or more - but as always want these out early for clients to take advantage of, either now or those that can/do wait. Sometimes I get the WORST of it by doing this - but my "grading" is less important that trying to to what I get paid to do. First off, CRIS/Bookmaker (sharp, usually release opening number) sent this out at +2.5. They simply had to know that Joe Q (Public) would pour in Arizona money. Either that or they were lazy because KenPom's metrics actually show St. Mary's winning this game and they just moved the line the other way, but clearly not enough. Anyhow, I'll take two possession here -first off, Arizona doesn't have a length advantage here. At least not with the starters, off the bench, yes - but since both these teams play pretty slow (St. Marys' at a snails' pace) they ought not get tired, only fouls should effect players sitting. So, there's that. I've always been scared to back Arizona's youth - and year after year after year they under achieve in the post season and this is 2017's drop off point. They score inside, and to reiterate they aren't bigger. St. Marys scores over the top, so "size doesn't matter" in this case. Aside from having several 40% three point shooters, SMC also has the best player on the court, Jock Landale.  (He's an Aussie, so we have some clients that will like this!) At 6' 11" this guy shoots 63% from inside and is a GREAT FT shooter - if he and Randy Bennett keep him out of foul trouble and on the court most of the game - here's the books public disaster of the weekend.

Yes, I just saw at 11:05 EST that some books went to +4.5. I'd say +5 is fine, and I was prepared to take +4 last night, but knew it'd eventually get better - it's just regressing to where I thought it might - so unless this gets to +3.5 (because you can buy to +4 - it's still a go as far as I'm concerned.

In the other games we haven't bet:
The world, or the supposed sharp ones, will be or are on Notre Dame. I thought for sure I would be, too. I'd clearly want +3 if I was. I actually like the OVER better here because WVU should completely own the offensive glass. That's what concerned me about the Irish, the only thing, really. That and the fact that typically books are not THAT wrong and don't make this easy.

Ahh, Florida. I wanted to be all over them here, fading UVA once again. My issue is/was the THIS could be where losing Egbunu hurts since this UVA team plays more inside than in years' past, so although it's STILL Florida or nothing - for the moment it's nothing because it just dropped down my list a bit. If I was one of those that would going to bet every game, which many do and just drop the unit size a bit (I hope) then I'd take the Gators (ML).

I think Xavier can beat FSU, too - I was afraid of FSU in the first round, and just because they had to work hard to get it done, didn't cover, and of course they're still the most unpredictable team in my book (the one that hasn't been published yet). Yes, I know Xavier lost Sumner earlier and played like it for a while, didn't have key wins without him - but hello, people, they beat Maryland without too much trouble. So, taking the points if I'm playing them all - Xavier is well coached and lean to the UNDER.

I don't want anything to do with that ISU/Purdue game. Purdue has been over rated all season and our longer term people know we've made a fair bit of money fading them in the right spots. ISU is a team on many people's "sleeper" list, or at least has a fair bit of public attention. So, why is this a pick 'em. Perhaps because ISU expended a lot of energy beating Nevada (playing fast) and Purdue really didn't expend much beating Vermont (playing slow) - so, with all that in mind and if I had to, ISU for the first half. 

I would simply have to take Northwestern and the under in that game. Why? Because rarely do public teams (Gonzaga) have games that end up with the favorite winning (and covering) as well as the over cashing. I know that's been happening more the last couple of days - but at SOME point it WILL change because life is just not that easy, or you guys wouldn't be paying me because you and Joe Q (that guy gets around) would be winning every week. Nobody does that :)


Pick Made: Mar 18 2017 6:19AM PST
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