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Sat, 03/18/17 - 2:55 PM Dave Essler | CBB Sides
double-dime bet 520 Villanova -5.0 (-120) Pinnacle vs 519 Wisconsin
Results: L, -$240
Analysis: I'm not going to hesitate here. I feel pretty confident (also probably on St. Marys) about this an I doubt the line goes under -5. It could, but you guys that have been around any length of time know I want them out as soon as I can. So, this is soon. Villanova struggled early against MSM (non monosodium glutomoate, Mt. St. Marys) but ending up winning big. Wisconsin won by 10 over VT (FOL) but that game was quite close in spite of VT's ineptness at times. So ask yourself what this line would be if they met in the first round - my guess, a few points higher. Now, for many of the same reasons I took VT, I'm taking Villanova. Nova drains three's and perhaps VT is a poor mans' Villanova in terms of style. Villanova didn't have to work THAT hard, and clearly Wisconsin had to play to the bitter end, literally. Wisconsin still has the worst three point defense and the worst FT shooting of most any team in this tournament. Who beat the Badgers twice? Michigan. Michigan is a poor mans' Villanova on offense, only Villanova actually has a defense to go along with it. Both these teams play fairly similar styles and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to run away with this (I wish) but I can clearly count on their 79.2% FT shooting late if need be, not to say that a few extra FT's here and there will add up all game. I could possibly upgrade this - but will not get TOO hasty here. And if I upgrade it and sell it as a 3* on a daily and -5 isn't around, daily people are going to get pissy anyway. So, similar styles, but Villanova just does it a lot better.

And FML because I leaned Florida and could have had a PK but hesitated to do more work on that game and bingo, lost that value. Tough game and there was one thing that made me hesitate - that's why there's "more work" to be done. I worry a little about the fact that this years' UVA team scores more inside that teams in the past, and that's where no Egbunu for the Gators MIGHT be a problem. We've got 24+ hours. I do think that St. Marys is going to get my money - I am just hoping for some additional public money to get us +4.5 or more. If I see it DROPPING, and although I DO have some other things to watch all day, I may grab it sooner rather than later. I love it when I am focused - let's hope it translates to more green ones like yesterday.

Pick Made: Mar 17 2017 10:09AM PST
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