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Tue, 02/14/17 - 7:00 PM Ben Burns | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet 730 Kentucky -14.0 (-110) Sportsbook.ag vs 729 Tennessee
Results: W, $300
Analysis:

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. A lot of handicappers, amateurs and pros alike, are quick to back an elite team in revenge situations. I did so myself last night with Kansas (which didn't go so well!) and am doing so again here. I don't do so blindly though, as I'm well aware that the pointspread tends to be pretty high on these teams, in these situations. I'm also well aware that Kentucky doesn't have a profitable recent history, when playing in the 'revenge' role. That said, I always look at each game individually and without bias. Every way I analyze this one, I get the same result - a big win for the Cats. 


Its been awhile since the Cats "blew a team out" and I feel that they're going to be motivated to do so here. Partly because the Vols beat them already. Absolutely. But also because they've got their next two on the road before hosting Florida, a team which beat them by 20 less than two weeks ago, in their next game here. I feel that they're going to look to build some confidence here - and I believe that the Vols will provide them that opportunity. 


The Vols are below .500 on the road. They only score 73.8 ppg away from home and they allow 74.4. Here, they'll face a Wildcat team which outscores teams by an average score of 92.4 to 72.4 on this floor. 


Note that the Vols are off a tough 1-point loss, as a favorite against Georgia, in their last game. Those types of defeats tend to sting and can be deflating. Not what you need when heading into hostile Kentucky. 


While they may not always thrive in the revenge role (4-6 ATS and 8-2 SU L10) the Cats have fared very well as home favorites of this size, in recent seasons. In fact, they're 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -15 range. With payback on their minds, I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. 



Pick Made: Feb 13 2017 1:41PM PST
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