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Wed, 01/11/17 - 9:15 PM Dave Essler | CBB Sides
triple-dime bet 759 Butler 4.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 760 Creighton
Results: L, -$330
Analysis:  Butler hasn't lost a game by four points this season. Until they do, I won't bet that they will. Creighton is obviously an up tempo team that plays marginal defense, with basically one way to win - outscore people. So is Vanderbilt, Indiana, and Villanova (although Nova can play defense) and those are all teams Butler has already beaten. Creighton on the other hand lost to Villanova, their only blemish this season. However, even last season most of the teams that beat Creighton fit that profile, too. This season Butler played a much more difficult non-conference schedule, and they beat Arizona the night after beating Vanderbilt, so stamina isn't an issue here. Even smaller, Butler is a better team on the glass at both ends of the floor. They're a better FT shooting team and play better defense. They beat Butler here last season (and lost at Butler) in a game that was close at the half, and the difference was the first few minutes of the second half. Creighton's interior defense was great - and Butler held them to only 6-24 from behind the arc. Creighton's interior defense hasn't been as solid this season (statistically) and Butler interior offense has been MUCH better. Perception here is one thing, and reality is another - I see this as nothing but a last possession game that Butler can win.

Other "stuff" -
I know ECU sucks - but I don't trust Houston laying -8 on the road
Everyone likes SC esp with Thornwell back - UT is a VERY tough place to play. 
I actually leaned Minnesota last night - today, I see NOTHING by people on them. MSU now or pass.
Because I don't like Mooney (Richmond coach) I do like St. Bonaventure. Close to adding.
The trend in the SH/Marquette game is to under - I disagree there, and lean Marquette as well.
I like Wake last week, last night, and tonight.
Leaned Texas and there's some reasonable movement in that direction perhaps worth a dollar.
Bradley at home is worth a look at +4   - they're not THAT bad.
Illinois over Michigan is the sharp side, if you will.
The money says Temple - now that the line has dropped so much I like the UConn ML.



Pick Made: Jan 10 2017 7:14PM PST
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