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Sun, 01/08/17 - 1:05 PM sleepyj | NFL Side
triple-dime bet 105 MIA 10.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 106 PIT
Results: L, -$330
Analysis: I'll take +10 here with Miami...Let's make a few things very clear about Pittsburgh...They have two players on offense period...Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown...The rest of the player they use and have are hole fillers...No real threat IMO and that is one of the big reasons the Steelers have had trouble closing out games...Pitt hasn't beaten a team by 10+ points the last 5 games...The defense hasn't been exactly lights out in the last 4 games either..Pitt at home will be tough and Miami winning looks rather tough...Miami though has QB issues...Matt Moore steps in and he isn't the greatest, but he has shown up this year...If you ask me which offense is better...It's Miami...They have more talent on that side of the ball...Matt Moore has looked good throwing 8Td's and 3Int's....He has a good running back in Jay Ajayi...He has rushed for 1,272 yards this season and has had some very big games...He has (3) 300 yard games and one of them came against this Pittsburgh team in which the Steelers got blown out....The other issue for the Steelers is who do they try to stop in the passing game...Miami has (4) legit targets...This is why Moore has actually looked good in his return....Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, Dion Sims & Jarvis Landry....This is a very good receiving core IMO....Pitt pass defense ranks 16th and rushing defense ranks 13th...Mid pack for the Steelers across the board...Miami defense is decent, but it won't need to be great in this game.....If Miami was smart, they spy Bell and avoid rushing more than 4 guys..Drop back and cover Brown over the top...Making Big Ben sit in the pocket and go through his reads...It's the only way to stop or slow down Pittsburgh on offense...If Miami thinks they can guard Brown one-on-one...He will torch them...I think Miami will be smart enough to not let that happen.....Last time these teams played Brown only caught 4 passes for 39 yards..They forced big Ben to check down to Bell...That will be the game plan again I'm sure...If it ain't broke, don't fix it....Here is another issue with the limited Pitt WR core...Big Ben is forcing throws and that has led to INT's....I've watched the games, I see what's going on...He has thrown 6 Int's in his last 4 games...If Miami takes away brown and they let Bell dip out, that will drive Big Ben nutz that he has to keep checking down and looking for 3rd and 4th options..He will force a few and Miami will get a few freebies...I think 10 is too much...If Miami plays one-on-one with Bell and Brown...I think we will struggle to cover, but if they do what I said and they stick to what worked last game in a blowout...Miami will be a live dog.....Plus that maniac Tomlin loves to go for 2pt conversions...I'd play this 3*** until it hits 8.5...Which i think it will..2** +8 and 1* 7.5 <---Closes

Pick Made: Jan 3 2017 12:18AM PST
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