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Mon, 01/09/17 - 8:15 PM Ben Burns | CFB Side
triple-dime bet 152 Alabama -6.5 (-110) William Hill vs 151 Clemson
Results: L, -$330
Analysis:

I'm playing on ALABAMA. Last year, I took the points with Clemson. The Tigers lost but covered. This year, I'm laying the points with Alabama. Why the change?


While this year's Tigers are off a very impressive win over Ohio State and off another outstanding season, they're no longer undefeated. Last year, they came in with an undefeated record and the swagger/confidence that comes with it. This year's team knows what its like to lose, as it gave up 43 points in a loss against Pittsburgh. (The Panthers were just one of four teams which scored 34 or more against them.)


To their credit, the Tigers rebounded nicely. Still, in the back of their minds, they know that even last year's undefeated team couldn't beat Alabama. Note that last year's Clemson team entere the game against Alabama averageing slightly more yards per game, while also allowing slightly less, than this year's team.


Meanwhile, the Tide are arguably better than ever. Last year's Alabama team had a loss on its resumé. This year's team has crushed every opponent for months. This year's team averages more yards on offense (and more points per game) than last year's team had entering the Clemson game, while also allowing fewer yards and fewer points.


In addition to the Pitt loss, Clemson got seriously tested by Auburn and Florida State as well as both NC State and Troy. The Tigers couldn't beat any of those teams by more than a touchdown. On the other hand, no team has stayed within single digits of the Tide since way back in September. The Tide were 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season; the Tigers were 5-5 ATS.


While the move to release Kiffin was indeed a little controversial, I believe it shows just how serious Saban is about this one. I expect his team to get the message and when the smoke clears, I expect them to deliver another double-digit win. 



Pick Made: Jan 2 2017 8:06AM PST
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