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Mon, 01/09/17 - 8:15 PM Ben Burns | CFB Total
triple-dime bet 152 Alabama / 151 Clemson Over 51.5 Pinnacle
Results: W, $300
Analysis:

I'm playing on Clemson and Alabama to finish OVER the total 3* TOTAL OF MONTH. With both teams coming off dominant defensive efforts and the Tide having just gotten rid of offensive coordinator Kiffin, many are going to be expecting a low-scoring game. Many thought the same thing last year, when both these same teams also entered the final off low-scoring defensive games. In fact, besides the Kiffin situation, (more on that later) the setup is quite similar to last year. 


Last year, Alabama was off a dominant defensive performance against Michigan State. The Spartans, who came in averaging more than 32 ppg, didn't score a single point. Meanwhile, Clemson was off a game in which it held normally high-scoring OU to only 17 points. Oklahoma entered that game averaging 45.7 ppg and 542.9 ypg. With Alabama and Clemson having just kept teams to 28+ and 32+ points below their average, many were expecting a defensive final.


As you likely recall, thats not what happened. I played on the 'over' and the teams combined for a whopping 85 points. The Tide put up 45 of those points while Clemson's Deshaun Watson carved up a #3 ranked Alabama defense, setting the record for the most total yards (478!) in national championship game history. Off last year's game, both offenses are going to come in confident that they're going to score.


Some may be down on the Bama offense after last week's admittedly less than impressive performance against Washington. Lets not forget that the Tide are still averaging 39.4 ppg (460.9 ypg) on the season including 40.9 ppg on the road. The firing of Kiffin, who was already on his way out, shows the type of urgency that Saban has. While the timing of that move may have been a bit out of the ordinary, Saban believes its the best move for the offense and I'm going to trust his judgement. While the Tigers were indeed impressive against Ohio State, don't forget that four teams scored 34 or more points against them this season. I'm confident that the Tide are also going to be able to move the ball and put it in the end zone with relative regularity. 


The Tigers were a profitable 'under' team against sub-500 teams. However, the OVER was 6-3 when they faced teams with a winning record. They check in averaging 39.5 ppg to go along with an impressive 502.1 yards per game. Off last year's performance, also against a very strong Alabama defense, they believe they can do it again. 


Including last year's game, Alabama has seen the OVER go 8-2 its last 10 neutral site games and 5-1 the last six times it was a neutral field favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range. While I'm not expecting as many points as last year, I AM expecting the final score to again finish above the low number. 




Pick Made: Jan 2 2017 7:21AM PST
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