Results: W, $300Analysis:
I'm playing on Clemson and Alabama to finish OVER the total 3*
TOTAL OF MONTH. With both teams coming off dominant defensive
efforts and the Tide having just gotten rid of offensive
coordinator Kiffin, many are going to be expecting a low-scoring
game. Many thought the same thing last year, when both these same
teams also entered the final off low-scoring defensive games. In
fact, besides the Kiffin situation, (more on that later) the setup
is quite similar to last year.
Last year, Alabama was off a dominant defensive performance against
Michigan State. The Spartans, who came in averaging more than 32
ppg, didn't score a single point. Meanwhile, Clemson was off a game
in which it held normally high-scoring OU to only 17 points.
Oklahoma entered that game averaging 45.7 ppg and 542.9 ypg. With
Alabama and Clemson having just kept teams to 28+ and 32+ points
below their average, many were expecting a defensive final.
As you likely recall, thats not what happened. I played on the
'over' and the teams combined for a whopping 85 points. The Tide
put up 45 of those points while Clemson's Deshaun Watson carved up
a #3 ranked Alabama defense, setting the record for the most total
yards (478!) in national championship game history. Off last year's
game, both offenses are going to come in confident that they're
going to score.
Some may be down on the Bama offense after last week's admittedly
less than impressive performance against Washington. Lets not
forget that the Tide are still averaging 39.4 ppg (460.9 ypg) on
the season including 40.9 ppg on the road. The firing of Kiffin,
who was already on his way out, shows the type of urgency that
Saban has. While the timing of that move may have been a bit out of
the ordinary, Saban believes its the best move for the offense and
I'm going to trust his judgement. While the Tigers were indeed
impressive against Ohio State, don't forget that four teams scored
34 or more points against them this season. I'm confident that the
Tide are also going to be able to move the ball and put it in the
end zone with relative regularity.
The Tigers were a profitable 'under' team against sub-500 teams.
However, the OVER was 6-3 when they faced teams with a winning
record. They check in averaging 39.5 ppg to go along with an
impressive 502.1 yards per game. Off last year's performance, also
against a very strong Alabama defense, they believe they can do it
Including last year's game, Alabama has seen the OVER go 8-2 its
last 10 neutral site games and 5-1 the last six times it was a
neutral field favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range. While I'm not
expecting as many points as last year, I AM expecting the final
score to again finish above the low number.
Pick Made: Jan 2 2017 7:21AM PST