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Mon, 01/09/17 - 8:15 PM sleepyj | CFB Side
triple-dime bet 152 Alabama -6.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 151 Clemson
Results: L, -$330
Analysis: Now that we all have seen what both teams can do, let's talk about what we have been hearing.

#1. Kiffin is out as OC and that will impact the game. Nothing against him, but now steps in Sark. Quite frankly this is the best thing that could ever happen for this guy. This is basically an interview for a big upgrade in his career after it fell apart. Can't complain going into a interview with perhaps the best team in the nation. I expect Sark to really mix it up here and it will be tough for Clemson to know what might be coming...I'm 100% sure this offense will look a bit different...Football minds sit back and say, I'd do this or I'd do that....Well he has a few days to convince Saban that what he watched and what he would do will work.....I think he has success in this game regardless who they are playing.

#2. Alabama didn't look very good against Washington....A boring game that was a 24-7 victory...Tide didn't do anything special on offense and most people grew old of that game IMO...I'll admit the offense didn't look very good and rather limited...I'll be the first to admit that Washington was actually a very good matchup for Alabama....I went through all the stats and everything...Nothing told me that Bama would blow them out...They covered the game...Plain and simple....They also held one of the nations leading offenses to 7 points....Those 7 points came very early and Alabama never let them score again...That has to be noted...In big games like this Alabama and Saban are famous for really limiting points scored...Last year was a bit of a different story in with Clemson, but something tells me that Bama limits them tonight.

#3. Clemson blew the doors off of Ohio St....That is what most people watched and they reacted the way a public bettor always does.....Bama offense looked bad and Clemson was unstoppable....True, but that type of thinking is why bettors lose money...A clear cut over-reaction to games played...It's natural, but can Clemson play that good for a second game in a row against a team like Alabama?....The answer is no....Can Bama play as lackluster as they did against Washington....I would say it's possible because Clemson is very good, but something tells me Bama will come even more prepared for this game..

When I broke these teams down it was rather nice to see a team that is actually comparable to Alabama....One of the big reasons i stay away from betting on or against Alabama is the crazy stats that line up against most teams....Well that's not the case for this game...On defense Alabama takes the cake and it's not that far apart, but far enough that Alabama will win the defensive battle....Saban knows this team and he knows what worked last year...Something tells me that Alabama was actually preparing for Clemson once the playoffs got announced....I actually think they played possum a bit the last two games of the season not throwing the ball at all really...Some can be put on Kiffin, but Saban won't give enough game tape to shut down the offense IMO...That's kinda why I like the Sark angle here.

On offense the Tigers have the best player on the field, but he has to face a Alabama defense that allows very little...A big factor for me and it haunts every team that plays Alabama are penalties and turnovers....Clemson can mask those errors against most teams, but they won't be able to mask them against Alabama....Tide are famous for turning teams over and scoring with instant offense or ending up with good field position....Penalties will hurt the Tigers as well and I'm certain it will kill drives for them....You can't run on Alabama...Watson will have to win the game and he might just have to have a Heisman like effort tonight...It's a tough task, but I'm sure he is looking forward to the challenge...I'm not sure this is the defense that will allow that kind of performance..Clemson will need some luck here at some point.

This really isn't a easy game to handicap because so many things are so close...Schedules for both teams are about the same and offense and defense seems to really offset each other. Coaching is about the same and it might seem crazy, but Dabo is one hell of a coach...His team seems to win those games that they should struggle or lose...Clemson has performed well this year in the big games and so has Alabama.

My final handicap is this....Bama defense will play lights out...Clemson will turn the ball over and kill themselves with penalties...Sark will throw a wrench into what Clemson expects in his epic football career interview.........This game will be close and this will be one of the best title games we have seen in some time. ..The little things add up and at some point late or early, Bama will find a way to get into the endzone and be up by 7-8 pts...I don't believe they give that up when that happens....Or if it's tied late in the game or we need a score to cover, we get it.


Pick Made: Dec 31 2016 7:44PM PST
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