Results: L, -$375Analysis: 980 Miami at
This is the
start we've been waiting for to go against Tom Koehler. This will
be Koehler's first start in a hitter's ballpark when he takes on
the Texas Rangers. The Rangers will counter with Colby Lewis.
Koehler has a 3.33 ERA but a 4.68 FIP and a 4.61 xFIP. His 4.68
SIERA suggests that he's actually pitching worse than he did last
season when he posted a 4.41 ERA.
In 33 road
innings this season, Koehler has a 4.09 ERA and now has a career
4.12 road ERA. Balls that don't carry in places like Miami,
Atlanta, and Citi Field in New York are going to carry a lot more
in Arlington. If you look at the places that Koehler has pitched,
not many of them are considered good hitter's parks. There aren't
many better than Texas and this is a much different animal than
Koehler is used to.
been unluckier than Colby Lewis on balls in play. Among pitchers
with at least 50 innings pitched, Lewis's .397 BABIP against tops
the list. Lewis is around average in K% and BB% for starting
pitchers and his home run rate isn't out of control by any means.
It's simply been a lack of balls hit at fielders.
Marlins have been surprisingly good offensively at home, leading
some to wonder if they were stealing signs, nobody strikes out more
on the road than Miami at 26 percent. They are tied for 21st in
road OPS and tied for 23rd in wRC+. The Marlins entered Monday's
off day with an 11-19 record on the road.
With a team
that struggles on the road and a pitcher due for regression, the
Rangers are a good look for Tuesday night's series opener.
Pick Made: Jun 10 2014 5:32AM PST