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Tue, 06/10/14 - 8:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
triple-dime bet 980 TEX (-125) William Hill vs 979 Mia
Results: L, -$375
Analysis: 980 Miami at Texas

This is the start we've been waiting for to go against Tom Koehler. This will be Koehler's first start in a hitter's ballpark when he takes on the Texas Rangers. The Rangers will counter with Colby Lewis. Koehler has a 3.33 ERA but a 4.68 FIP and a 4.61 xFIP. His 4.68 SIERA suggests that he's actually pitching worse than he did last season when he posted a 4.41 ERA.

In 33 road innings this season, Koehler has a 4.09 ERA and now has a career 4.12 road ERA. Balls that don't carry in places like Miami, Atlanta, and Citi Field in New York are going to carry a lot more in Arlington. If you look at the places that Koehler has pitched, not many of them are considered good hitter's parks. There aren't many better than Texas and this is a much different animal than Koehler is used to.

Nobody has been unluckier than Colby Lewis on balls in play. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, Lewis's .397 BABIP against tops the list. Lewis is around average in K% and BB% for starting pitchers and his home run rate isn't out of control by any means. It's simply been a lack of balls hit at fielders.

While the Marlins have been surprisingly good offensively at home, leading some to wonder if they were stealing signs, nobody strikes out more on the road than Miami at 26 percent. They are tied for 21st in road OPS and tied for 23rd in wRC+. The Marlins entered Monday's off day with an 11-19 record on the road.

With a team that struggles on the road and a pitcher due for regression, the Rangers are a good look for Tuesday night's series opener.

PLAY: TEXAS


Pick Made: Jun 10 2014 5:32AM PST
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