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Mon, 06/09/14 - 7:05 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 913 BOS (+105) Bookmaker.com vs 914 BAL
Results: L, -$200
Analysis:
913 Boston at Baltimore

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will renew their AL East rivalry with Monday's series opener at Camden Yards with a matchup between Jake Peavy and Bud Norris. As Peavy has lost velocity, he's become more of a nibbler, trying to make the perfect pitches on the corners. The results has been a drop in strikeouts and a rise in walks because hitters are simply waiting him out. Peavy actually draws a favorable matchup against the Orioles here because they are one of the most aggressive teams in baseball and that plays into the style of pitching that Peavy is trying to live by.

The Orioles swing more than any other American League team and are in the top-five in swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone, leading the AL in that category as well. That means that Peavy should be able to get Orioles hitters to expand the zone, which will play right into his gameplan. The transition to more ground balls and more breaking balls has had translated into success for Peavy overall, but it should work in this matchup with an ultra-aggressive team that will pull off the pitches Peavy throws near the corners.

Norris has lost the only thing that made him a decent pitcher - strikeouts. Norris's strikeout rate is nearly five percent below his career average and hitters are punishing him for it. Unlike Peavy, Norris has not lost velocity, but has thrown fewer breaking balls that induce swings and misses. His reliance on the fastball has had a negative impact on his season. Ironically, the fastball has been Norris's worst pitch over the last six years registering 41.7 runs below average.

Norris's Contact% is seven percent above his career average and the result of more balls in play has not been good. His Zone-Contact% is above 90 percent for the first time. If not for some batted ball luck with runners on, Norris would have an ERA well above 5.00 and that might be where he'll be trending in the near future.

PLAY: BOSTON


Pick Made: Jun 9 2014 5:47AM PST
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