Results: L, -$200Analysis:
Boston at Baltimore
Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will renew their AL East rivalry with
Monday's series opener at Camden Yards with a matchup between Jake
Peavy and Bud Norris. As Peavy has lost velocity, he's become more
of a nibbler, trying to make the perfect pitches on the corners.
The results has been a drop in strikeouts and a rise in walks
because hitters are simply waiting him out. Peavy actually draws a
favorable matchup against the Orioles here because they are one of
the most aggressive teams in baseball and that plays into the style
of pitching that Peavy is trying to live by.
swing more than any other American League team and are in the
top-five in swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone, leading
the AL in that category as well. That means that Peavy should be
able to get Orioles hitters to expand the zone, which will play
right into his gameplan. The transition to more ground balls and
more breaking balls has had translated into success for Peavy
overall, but it should work in this matchup with an
ultra-aggressive team that will pull off the pitches Peavy throws
near the corners.
lost the only thing that made him a decent pitcher - strikeouts.
Norris's strikeout rate is nearly five percent below his career
average and hitters are punishing him for it. Unlike Peavy, Norris
has not lost velocity, but has thrown fewer breaking balls that
induce swings and misses. His reliance on the fastball has had a
negative impact on his season. Ironically, the fastball has been
Norris's worst pitch over the last six years registering 41.7 runs
Contact% is seven percent above his career average and the result
of more balls in play has not been good. His Zone-Contact% is above
90 percent for the first time. If not for some batted ball luck
with runners on, Norris would have an ERA well above 5.00 and that
might be where he'll be trending in the near future.
Pick Made: Jun 9 2014 5:47AM PST