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Mon, 06/09/14 - 7:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 904 CIN (-105) Pinnacle vs 903 LOS
Results: L, -$210
Analysis: 904 LA Dodgers at Cincinnati

The Dodgers left Colorado with a rain-shortened series victory and will open up a three-game set in Cincinnati against the Reds. The series opener features Dan Haren against Tony Cingrani. Haren's best asset is that he doesn't walk people, but that's less of a skill when he pitches against a team that doesn't walk. Outside of Joey Votto, one other regular, Jay Bruce, has an above average walk rate. What that means is that Haren induces a lot of contact and that should benefit the Reds. In terms of Contact%, Haren ranks 10th.

For a guy like Haren who has a home run problem, Great American Ball Park shouldn't be a very friendly venue to pitch in. After enjoying an April resurgence, Haren has struggled in May and June with a combined ERA of 4.53. He has allowed 18 extra-base hits in 43.2 innings of work, including eight home runs. It's clear that Dodger Stadium has helped Haren as his slash against at home is .252/.281/.452 and .287/.327/.469 on the road. Balls that die at Chavez Ravine carry in other places and that has led to a higher batting average and a higher slugging percentage against.

Cingrani hasn't had a great season, but he gets a favorable matchup here against the league's worst offense against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers are batting .208 as a team with a league-worst .622 OPS against southpaws. Even though it's not Cingrani's first start against the Dodgers, facing an unfamiliar lefty is an angle that we like to play and that one truly favored the Reds here given the Dodgers' struggles against them.


Pick Made: Jun 9 2014 5:38AM PST
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