Results: L, -$110Analysis:
NBA - 703 Miami Heat @ 704 San Antonio Spurs
I had the OVER in the first game of the NBA finals…
"I think that this series will be a relatively high scoring series
and (even) more fun to watch than last season's Finals.
Note that both teams' strategy will favor a high scoring
It is pretty clear to me that the Spurs will push the pace at every
chance! They have a huge edge over MIA in terms of depth, so they
will try to "tire" the Heat w/ their superior depth, and so, they
will play w/ high tempo and energy. This has been their strategy
for the whole season and I don't think this will change in
On the other end, it's pretty clear to me that MIA doesn't want to
play "BIG" against the Spurs, especially w/ Rashard Lewis playing
so well lately for them! MIA was clearly outplayed in the Finals
last season when they started Haslem + Bosh on the frontcourt in
the first 3 games of the series when they had to deal vs. Duncan +
Splitter, so I don't think that this duo will share a single minute
on the court at the same time. MIA's small ball lineup is clearly
their best weapon and unlike last season, we will watch them play
in this way since the start of the series."
I don't think that the mindset from both teams will change for
tonight and so, I'm riding once again w/ the OVER.
With all the A/C stuff from the first game, it is pretty clear to
me that Popovich will instruct his players to push the pace at
every chance. SAS has a substantial depth edge over MIA and
obviously, they'll try to explore such advantage.
Obviously, the Spurs eventually won't hit 58.8% of their shots
today, but I also think that they will reduce a bit the number of
TO's - even against the aggressive MIA's defense, 23 TO's was too
much! SAS scored 20 fast break points and they generated plenty of
good looks for their shooters.
On the other end, MIA also generated a ton of quality shots. They
scored only 3 points in the last 4 minutes of the game, so they
could easily reached the century mark in points. The absence of
LeBron James was major factor…after all, we are dealing with
the best player of the world.
"…MIA was clearly outplayed in the Finals last season when
they started Haslem + Bosh on the frontcourt in the first 3 games
of the series when they had to deal vs. Duncan + Splitter, so I
don't think that this duo will share a single minute on the court
at the same time.."
Well… Haslem simply didn't play in the first game! There is
the sense that Miami could have won the game if LeBron remained in
the game so I really don't think that the Heat will change their
strategy tonight: they will play small ball, they'll try to create
TO's and score in transition.
KEY FACTOR: Game 1 was this Thursday, so both teams had 2 days off
to "rest" and prepare tonight's game! Note that they won't have the
same "luxury" for the next game - only one day off!
My fair line for this contest is 202 points and therefore, I'm
taking the OVER in here!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on
703/704 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on
Pick Made: Jun 8 2014 1:30PM PST