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Sun, 06/08/14 - 8:10 PM Andre Gomes | NBA Total
dime bet 704 SAN / 703 MIA Over 198.5 BetOnline
Results: L, -$110
Analysis: NBA - 703 Miami Heat @ 704 San Antonio Spurs

Play #1

I had the OVER in the first game of the NBA finals…

"I think that this series will be a relatively high scoring series and (even) more fun to watch than last season's Finals.

Note that both teams' strategy will favor a high scoring affair…

It is pretty clear to me that the Spurs will push the pace at every chance! They have a huge edge over MIA in terms of depth, so they will try to "tire" the Heat w/ their superior depth, and so, they will play w/ high tempo and energy. This has been their strategy for the whole season and I don't think this will change in here.

On the other end, it's pretty clear to me that MIA doesn't want to play "BIG" against the Spurs, especially w/ Rashard Lewis playing so well lately for them! MIA was clearly outplayed in the Finals last season when they started Haslem + Bosh on the frontcourt in the first 3 games of the series when they had to deal vs. Duncan + Splitter, so I don't think that this duo will share a single minute on the court at the same time. MIA's small ball lineup is clearly their best weapon and unlike last season, we will watch them play in this way since the start of the series."

I don't think that the mindset from both teams will change for tonight and so, I'm riding once again w/ the OVER.

With all the A/C stuff from the first game, it is pretty clear to me that Popovich will instruct his players to push the pace at every chance. SAS has a substantial depth edge over MIA and obviously, they'll try to explore such advantage.

Obviously, the Spurs eventually won't hit 58.8% of their shots today, but I also think that they will reduce a bit the number of TO's - even against the aggressive MIA's defense, 23 TO's was too much! SAS scored 20 fast break points and they generated plenty of good looks for their shooters.

On the other end, MIA also generated a ton of quality shots. They scored only 3 points in the last 4 minutes of the game, so they could easily reached the century mark in points. The absence of LeBron James was major factor…after all, we are dealing with the best player of the world.

Again…

"…MIA was clearly outplayed in the Finals last season when they started Haslem + Bosh on the frontcourt in the first 3 games of the series when they had to deal vs. Duncan + Splitter, so I don't think that this duo will share a single minute on the court at the same time.."

Well… Haslem simply didn't play in the first game! There is the sense that Miami could have won the game if LeBron remained in the game so I really don't think that the Heat will change their strategy tonight: they will play small ball, they'll try to create TO's and score in transition.

KEY FACTOR: Game 1 was this Thursday, so both teams had 2 days off to "rest" and prepare tonight's game! Note that they won't have the same "luxury" for the next game - only one day off!

My fair line for this contest is 202 points and therefore, I'm taking the OVER in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on  703/704 Over 198.5  @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline


Pick Made: Jun 8 2014 1:30PM PST
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