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Sun, 06/08/14 - 1:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 952 CIN (-160) Pinnacle vs 951 PHI
Results: W, $200
952 Philadelphia at Cincinnati

Sometimes there's value in laying a big number and that's the situation on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati as the Phillies and Reds wrap up their weekend three-game series. David Buchanan will take the hill for the Phillies against Homer Bailey, a pitcher we've monitored very closely of late because of his advanced metrics. The Phillies are ending their six-game road trip and have an off day on Monday, which everybody is looking forward to. The Phillies are already 10 games under .500 with a lot of players that are in limbo because the team is going to start trading off pieces and there are some valuable assets that other teams will be interested in. Add that players like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins have been to the mountaintop before and are now left staring up at it. The talking heads on MLB Network Radio used words like "toxic" and "awful" to describe the Phillies clubhouse on Friday and that shouldn't come as a big surprise.

As for the on-field product, Buchanan has found out over his last two starts what it's like to be a pitch-to-contact guy with a bad defense behind you. He has allowed 11 runs on 17 hits and has taken the loss in both games. He hasn't made quality pitches inside the strike zone and opposing hitters are taking healthy swings. Buchanan's not ready to be at this level with a mediocre minor league track record and unpolished stuff.

Homer Bailey is trending in the right direction, just like we expected him to. Six of Bailey's last seven starts have been quality starts in his attempt to dig his ERA out of a hole from early April. Bailey's 4.99 ERA is drawing closer to his 4.34 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, and 3.58 SIERA. Keep in mind that xFIP and SIERA are the best predictors of future performance. As Bailey's home run rate comes down, which it will continue to do, his strong strikeout and walk rates will keep the successful starts coming.

Don't be afraid to lay this price. The Reds have a major advantage in the starting pitching matchup and the situation sets up good for Cincinnati with Monday's off day at home for Philadelphia.


Pick Made: Jun 8 2014 5:34AM PST
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