Results: W, $200Analysis:
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
there's value in laying a big number and that's the situation on
Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati as the Phillies and Reds wrap up
their weekend three-game series. David Buchanan will take the hill
for the Phillies against Homer Bailey, a pitcher we've monitored
very closely of late because of his advanced metrics. The Phillies
are ending their six-game road trip and have an off day on Monday,
which everybody is looking forward to. The Phillies are already 10
games under .500 with a lot of players that are in limbo because
the team is going to start trading off pieces and there are some
valuable assets that other teams will be interested in. Add that
players like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins have been
to the mountaintop before and are now left staring up at it. The
talking heads on MLB Network Radio used words like "toxic" and
"awful" to describe the Phillies clubhouse on Friday and that
shouldn't come as a big surprise.
As for the
on-field product, Buchanan has found out over his last two starts
what it's like to be a pitch-to-contact guy with a bad defense
behind you. He has allowed 11 runs on 17 hits and has taken the
loss in both games. He hasn't made quality pitches inside the
strike zone and opposing hitters are taking healthy swings.
Buchanan's not ready to be at this level with a mediocre minor
league track record and unpolished stuff.
is trending in the right direction, just like we expected him to.
Six of Bailey's last seven starts have been quality starts in his
attempt to dig his ERA out of a hole from early April. Bailey's
4.99 ERA is drawing closer to his 4.34 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, and 3.58
SIERA. Keep in mind that xFIP and SIERA are the best predictors of
future performance. As Bailey's home run rate comes down, which it
will continue to do, his strong strikeout and walk rates will keep
the successful starts coming.
afraid to lay this price. The Reds have a major advantage in the
starting pitching matchup and the situation sets up good for
Cincinnati with Monday's off day at home for Philadelphia.
Pick Made: Jun 8 2014 5:34AM PST