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Sun, 06/08/14 - 4:10 PM Bryan Leonard | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet 961 WAS (-124) 5Dimes vs 962 SDP
Results: W, $200
Analysis:
961 Washington at San Diego

Eric Stults's home performance over the last couple of years is influencing this line and is giving value to the road team as the Washington Nationals look to keep playing well. Stults will be opposed by Jordan Zimmermann. The Padres entered action on Friday with eight runs scored in the month of June over a five-game span and their lone win during that time was a game in which they had one hit, a bunt single.

Stults has been awful this season no matter where he has pitched. After a 3.06 home ERA in 2013 and a surprisingly strong year in 2012, Stults has a 4.78 ERA at home in 26.1 innings and a 5.20 ERA in 36.1 innings on the road. At home, opposing hitters are enjoying a .315/.336/.473 slash line. A drop in strikeouts, a spike in walks, and a major spike in home runs has wreaked havoc on Stults this season. Among qualified starters, only Kyle Gibson and Jeremy Guthrie have struck out a lower percentage of hitters than Stults. Eight of Stults's 32 strikeouts have come in 20 plate appearances against opposing pitchers, so his K% against actual hitters is 9.26 percent, which would be by far the worst mark in baseball.

As we've said before, Zimmermann might not be the headline-grabber in the Nationals rotation, but he might be the most consistent pitcher of the group. Some bad luck on batted balls has pushed Zimmermann's ERA up to 3.59 because of a BABIP against of .349. His career BABIP against is .294. In this start, he draws the worst offense in the league as the Padres are last or close to it in most categories.

The Nationals are seventh in OPS against southpaws and have a wRC+ of 111 against lefties, which puts them 11 percent above league average. Run support for Zimmermann shouldn't be a problem and even if it is, the Padres don't score many.

PLAY: WASHINGTON


Pick Made: Jun 8 2014 5:32AM PST
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